Florida Housing Market Forecast for 2025 – 2026: Cooler and Slower

Home prices in Florida have declined over the past year, and that trend could continue through the rest of 2025 and into 2026.

That’s the general consensus forecast from a number of economists and housing analysts.

This report provides an updated look at real estate market trends across the state of Florida, with a general forecast extending into 2026.

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5 Things to Know About the Market in 2025

Here are five important trends every home buyer and seller needs to know:

1. Florida home prices are down nearly 4% year over year and could keep falling through late 2025 or early 2026.
2. Most major metro areas in Florida are seeing price declines, with small additional drops forecast for the next year.
3. Most Florida cities are currently buyer’s markets, with high inventory, slow sales, and frequent price reductions.
4. High insurance costs have reduced demand, especially in flood-prone areas, adding downward pressure on home values.
5. Many sellers are having to reduce their list prices, with Florida ranking #2 in the U.S. for price reductions last month.

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Florida Home Values Are Down by 3.8%

Florida home prices have been declining for a while now, with month-to-month drops going back more than a year.

According to Zillow, the statewide median value declined by nearly 4% from June 2024 to June 2025. During that same 12-month span, the national median price rose by 0.8%.

This shows that Florida is bucking the national trend. While many U.S. cities currently have flat or slow-rising home values, the Sunshine State continues to depreciate in value.

In June 2025, Zillow’s website stated:

“The average Florida home value is $386,556, down 3.8% over the past year and goes to pending in around 45 days.”

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Home Price Forecasts for Major Metros

The company’s economists predict that home prices in Florida’s major cities will continue to decline over the coming months, though possibly at a slower pace.

Below, you’ll find the current median home value for Florida’s largest metros, how they’ve changed over the past year, and Zillow’s forecast for the next 12 months.

Note: These forecasts cover the period from May 2025 to May 2026.

Jacksonville: $290,980
-3.4% YoY
-0.7% forecast (May 2025 – May 2026)

Miami-Fort Lauderdale: $482,204
-2.2% YoY
-0.1% forecast

Orlando-Kissimmee: $393,884
-2.6% YoY
-0.9% forecast

Tampa-St. Petersburg: $368,374
-4.8% YoY
-0.7% forecast

Our prediction is that Florida home values will find a “bottom” toward the end of 2025, hover in that range for a while, and then start rising again—but gradually.

It Could Remain a Buyer’s Market Until 2026

Most Florida cities are buyer’s markets in 2025. This means buyers have more negotiating leverage than sellers, when it comes to the sale price and terms.

We can find evidence of this in a number of metrics:

• The state of Florida currently has more than a 6-month supply of homes for sale, well above the national average of 3.5-months of supply.
• Homes listed for sale in Florida stay on the market for a median of 65 days, well above the national median of 40 – 45 days.
• In recent months, only about 10% of Florida homes sold for more than the original list price, with most properties selling at or below list.
• The Sunshine State has the second-highest percentage of price reductions by sellers, which often occurs due to a lack of offers.

These and other data points reinforce the idea that Florida is currently in a buyer’s market phase. The question is, how long will it last?

It would take a lot to shift Florida back to favoring sellers. Mortgage rates would have to drop substantially, and supply levels would also need to shrink. Neither of those scenarios appear to be on the horizon.

Because of all this, many housing predictions suggest that Florida’s market conditions will continue to favor buyers through the rest of this year and possibly into 2026.

It’s a Tough Time to Sell a House in Florida

As we enter the summer of 2025, Florida’s real estate market continues to show signs of cooling. Because of this, sellers are having a harder time finding buyers and attracting offers.

One metric that demonstrates this is the median days on market (DOM), which shows the typical time it takes for a home to sell in a specific area during a given period.

Data compiled from real estate brokerage Redfin indicates that the median days on market (DOM) for homes in Florida reached 71 days in March 2025.

In other words, it takes the typical home nearly two and a half months to receive an offer and go under contract, after first coming onto the market.

That’s an increase of 18 days from the 53-day DOM recorded in March 2024. This shows that the pace of home sales has declined significantly over the past year or so.

Home Insurance Costs Have Reduced Demand

As mentioned above, home insurance plays a part in all of this. In Florida, it has become increasingly costly to insure a house. That discourages some buyers from entering the real estate market altogether.

According to Central Florida Public Media:

“Florida’s property insurance has increased 72% in the last five years, with the number of homeowners who can’t get coverage through private insurers going up 400%.”

Thomas Malone, an economist with Cotality, told the Dallas Morning News that insurance costs in flood-prone areas have a direct impact on home value deterioration:

“Florida continued to slump, with prices falling in Miami and Tampa … The slowdown reflects rising insurance costs—especially in flood-prone areas—and a shift in demand northward.”

Similarly, a recent report from Zillow identified the five U.S. metropolitan areas with the steepest increase in insurance premiums since 2019. Three were located in Florida.

Our prediction is that rising insurance costs (combined with elevated mortgage rates and home prices) will continue to cool the Florida housing market for the foreseeable future.

Florida Is the #2 State for Seller Price Reductions

A recent Realtor.com analysis showed that the Sunshine State ranks second in the nation for the percentage of homes seeing price reductions.

The data showed that 25% of home listings in Florida experienced a price cut in spring 2025, a figure surpassed only by Arizona at 28%.

Price reductions occur when homeowners list their properties at one price but later reduces it, usually due to a lack of offers. These statistics confirm that the Florida real estate market still favors buyers over sellers, especially when it comes to the sale price.

In fact, when you drill down to the city and metro level, Florida currently has more buyer’s markets than any other U.S. state.

According to a May 29 report from Zillow: “Six of the top 10 buyer’s markets are in Florida and one is in Texas.”

Bottom line: Florida housing trends and predictions suggest that the market will remain sluggish and buyer-friendly for the foreseeable future, possibly into 2026.

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Disclaimer: This report contains predictions for the Florida real estate market extending into 2026. Such views are the equivalent of an educated guess and thus far from certain. The Home Buying Institute (HBI) makes no claims or assurances about future housing trends.