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Housing market conditions across the state of Florida continue to favor buyers over sellers, mainly due to a significant increase in inventory.
Florida real estate forecasts predict that this dynamic could continue through 2025 and into 2026. Home prices, meanwhile, are expected to remain mostly flat over the coming months.
Five Predictions Included in This Forecast
- Most Florida cities will be buyer’s markets throughout 2025.
- Home prices will remain flat or rise slightly over the next year.
- Florida home buyers will have more properties to choose from.
- The real estate market will continue to move at a sluggish pace.
- Very few buyers will be willing to pay above the list price.
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1. Florida will remain a buyer’s market throughout 2025.
Most cities across the state of Florida will continue to favor buyers for the rest of 2025 and possibly into 2026. The Sunshine State has been a buyer’s market for at least a year now, and the latest forecasts suggest this dynamic will continue for a while longer.
Inventory growth is the main reason for this. As explained below, the state of Florida has experienced a significant increase in housing market inventory over the past couple of years.
Higher home prices and mortgage rates, meanwhile, have reduced the level of demand from buyers. With more supply and less demand, the market has become more buyer-friendly.
Prediction takeaway: Most local housing markets across Florida currently favor buyers over sellers, and these conditions will persist for the foreseeable future.
2. Home prices will remain flat or rise slightly.
According to data provided by Zillow in February 2025, the median home value for the state of Florida declined by around 1.4% over the past year.
Home prices in Florida skyrocketed during the pandemic, leveled off in 2023, and were mostly flat through 2024 and into 2025.
Over the past few years, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates reduced housing market affordability in Florida. This has shrunk the pool of qualified buyers, reducing the demand for homes.
Some forecasts predict that Florida’s housing market will begin to appreciate again, with prices rising gradually through the rest of this year and into the next.
For example, here are Zillow’s home price forecasts for all major metros:
Jacksonville
Current median price: $287,628
Forecast (Jan. 2025 – Jan. 2026): +1.3%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale
Current median price: $483,280
Forecast (Jan. 2025 – Jan. 2026): +2.5%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton
Current median price: $428,956
Forecast (Jan. 2025 – Jan. 2026): +0.8%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
Current median price: $389,268
Forecast (Jan. 2025 – Jan. 2026): +1.5%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
Current median price: $366,460
Forecast (Jan. 2025 – Jan. 2026): +1.9%
Some analysts remain skeptical about the Florida housing market, predicting that home prices will either remain flat or dip slightly over the coming months. That’s a reasonable outlook based on the current supply-and-demand situation.
Prediction takeaway: Home buyers in Florida can slow down and take a breath in 2025, without feeling the urgency or pressure caused by fast-rising prices.
3. Buyers will have more properties to choose from.
One of the biggest changes in the Florida real estate market has to do with supply.
Over the past couple of years, housing market inventory has risen steadily across the Sunshine State. This gives buyers more options and increases the chance of finding a suitable home within budget.
As of January, the state of Florida had a 7.5-month supply of homes for sale. That was miles above the national average of 3.6 months of supply.
The following graph was created using data from the real estate brokerage Redfin. It shows the months of supply for the state of Florida (green) and the United States as a whole (red).
(In real estate, “months of supply” is a metric that estimates how long it would take to sell all current homes for sale at the current sales rate. This metric helps us track inventory levels over time and to assess local market conditions.)
You’ll notice two important trends in this graph, both on the far right side:
- First of all, you can see how supply levels within the Florida real estate market have risen substantially over the past couple of years.
- You can also see how Florida has a much greater supply of homes for sale when compared to the national average (red line).
Prediction takeaway: When it comes to inventory, Florida is a buyer’s paradise in 2025. These favorable conditions will likely continue through this year and into 2026.
4. The market will continue to move at a sluggish pace.
For the rest of 2025, most local housing markets across Florida will continue to move at a relatively slow pace. Homes have been staying on the market much longer than the national average, partly due to the inventory growth mentioned above.
The pace or “speed” of a real estate market can be measured by looking at the median days on market (DOM). This is the midpoint for how long it takes to sell a home, based on recent sales data.
- A high DOM indicates a slow market where houses take a long time to sell.
- A low DOM suggests the opposite: a fast-moving market with quick sales.
The median DOM for Florida has been climbing steadily for a while now, which means the market pace has slowed down. In fact, the Sunshine State currently has the highest number of days on market of almost any state in the U.S.
Stated differently: Florida currently has one of the slowest housing markets.
Prediction takeaway: The sluggish pace probably won’t change anytime soon. Higher housing and economic uncertainties will keep many buyers on the sidelines for now.
5. Very few buyers will be willing to pay above the list price.
In a hot housing market, buyers are more likely to end up paying more than the asking price. This scenario occurs when multiple buyers bid on the same house, driving up the sale price.
Florida is currently the opposite of that.
In January 2025, only about 8% of the homes sold in Florida ended up selling for more than the list price. The main reason for this: there are fewer buyers in the market these days.
Nationally, 22% of homes sold for more than the initial list price in January.
In a seller’s market, we typically see more than 50% of homes selling above the list price. So Florida’s 8% figure provides more evidence of an ongoing buyer’s market.
Prediction takeaway: For the rest of 2025, most houses sold across the state of Florida will end up selling at or below the list price, due to high inventory and weak demand.
Bottom Line: It’s a Good Time to Buy in Florida
After the roller coaster trends of the past few years, a lot of would-be home buyers in the Sunshine State are now wondering the same thing:
Is now a good time to buy a home in Florida? And what about next year?
Potential buyers should consider a wide range of factors before making a home purchase. This includes their current financial situation, budget, lifestyle priorities, and long-term goals.
But from a real estate market perspective, the rest of 2025 could be a great time to buy a home in the state of Florida.
We’ve covered some of the main reasons for this already:
- Home buyers currently have plenty of properties to choose from, thanks to the steady inventory gains of the past two years.
- Home buyers have more negotiating power when it comes to the sale price and other terms.
- Florida housing markets have cooled and slowed over the past year, giving buyers more time to evaluate properties and research sale prices.
- A higher percentage of sellers have been reducing their list prices lately, in order to attract offers in a cooling market.
- Home prices in most Florida housing markets have stabilized, following the ups and downs of the post-pandemic shakeup.
Despite these mostly positive trends, HBI encourages home buyers to research their local markets and perform due diligence to make an informed purchasing decision.
7 More Things Home Buyers Should Know
Compared to most other states, the Florida real estate market stands out as being larger, more complex, and more diverse. It’s actually the largest housing market in the United States, when measured by the number of home sales each year.
Here are some other things you should know about the real estate scene in Florida, if you’re planning to buy a home there in 2025.
1. Steady population growth increases housing demand.
Earlier this year, the state’s population crossed the 23 million mark for the first time ever. This was largely due to people relocating from other states.
Steady growth increases the demand for housing, especially in urban and coastal markets. This is partly why the latest forecasts predict continued price growth into 2025.
2. Tax advantages attract buyers from other states.
Florida is one of the few states with no state income tax. This can be a significant draw for home buyers, especially those who are moving from high-tax states.
A favorable tax climate, combined with a homestead exemption up to $50,000, makes the Florida housing market more attractive for both retirees and working professionals.
3. Coastal and inland housing markets can be very different.
Here’s a key distinction when it comes to property types and market conditions:
- The inland areas offer mostly detached single-family homes and more stable conditions.
- The coastal areas are dominated by the condominium market and often experience more volatility in terms of prices.
The condo-heavy coastal real estate scene can experience extreme fluctuations in terms of inventory, price reductions, etc. In contrast, inland housing markets like Orlando and Gainesville tend to have more moderate ups and downs with pricing and inventory.
Another way to think of it: Florida is not just one big real estate scene, but a patchwork of individual “micro markets” that have very different supply-and-demand factors.
4. Home insurance can be hard to find in Florida.
Florida is facing a severe home insurance crisis. After years of costly hurricanes and other natural disasters, many insurance companies have either reduced the number of policies they issue or left the state entirely.
As a result, homeowners in Florida now face skyrocketing premiums, limited coverage options, and difficulty finding insurance altogether.
Many overlapping factors have contributed to this problem. More frequent severe weather driven by climate change, fraudulent insurance claims, and lawsuits have all worsened the crisis.
This makes the Florida housing market more challenging for both buyers and sellers.
5. Your “neighbors” might be vacationers.
According to the Miami Association of Realtors, Florida has the largest stock of vacation homes of any state in the U.S. They define a vacation home as a “housing unit used for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use.”
Statewide, vacation homes account for more than 8% of total housing stock. But in tourist-heavy areas like South Florida and Orlando, that percentage can be much higher.
6. You might have to compete with investors.
With its favorable tax climate, growing population, and strong rental demand, Florida is a popular real estate market for investors. It’s also a top destination for international buyers, including many from Latin America and Europe.
According to data provided by Florida Realtors, more than 60% of these international buyers paid all cash for properties. All-cash offers are equally common among U.S.-based investors.
This makes the housing market more challenging for traditional home buyers who have to rely on mortgage loans. It’s hard for mortgage-backed buyers to compete with all-cash offers.
But this might be less of a problem through the rest of 2024 and into 2025. Home sales have slowed in Florida and inventory is piling up. Traditional home buyers now have a golden window of opportunity marked by lower competition and higher supply levels.
7. Home prices vary widely depending on location.
The statewide median home value in Florida is currently around $400,000. But prices can vary widely from one city and metro area to the next.
As of summer 2024, the median home value was less than $300,000 in housing markets like Tallahassee and Panama City. In contrast, the median price runs north of $500,000 in cities like Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach—and more than $1 million in Coral Gables.
Florida home buyers who have some flexibility in terms of where they live could score a bargain by expanding their search zone.
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Disclaimer: This report contains predictions for the Florida real estate market extending into 2025. Such views are the equivalent of an educated guess and thus far from certain. The Home Buying Institute (HBI) makes no claims or assurances about future housing trends.