Miami, Florida Housing Forecast Through 2023 and Into 2024

The 2024 FHA Loan Handbook

As with many cities and metro areas across the country, the Miami real estate market has cooled down in 2023. Higher prices and mortgage rates have reduced demand, leading to fewer and slower home sales.

Our 2024 housing market forecast for the Miami metro area predicts that home prices will rise more slowly, and that buyers will have more negotiating leverage. It will be a much different real estate scene, when compared to the pandemic-fueled buying frenzy of the previous two years.

Miami Housing Market Predictions Into 2024

  1. Home prices will begin to rise more slowly, following a year of strong gains.
  2. Higher mortgage rates will cool the market, with homes taking longer to sell.
  3. Miami will shift from a strong seller’s market toward more neutral territory.
  4. Buyers will eventually enjoy more negotiating leverage due to this shift.
  5. More properties will become available over the coming months.

Note: Real estate forecasts are based on current and expected trends, and are therefore far from certain. Consider them the equivalent of an educated guess. The Home Buying Institute makes no guarantees about future housing market conditions.

Miami Avoids Home Price ‘Correction’ in 2023

In February 2023, Fortune cited a paper published by the investment bank Goldman Sachs, which included the company’s outlook for the U.S. housing market. The company’s analysts believe that the United States will continue to experience a home price “correction” through 2023, with prices beginning to rise again in 2024.

They singled out the Miami, Florida metro area as one of the few real estate markets where prices would continue to rise throughout 2023. According to their prediction, the Miami area would avoid the price correction that has affected much of the nation this year.

To quote the Fortune report:

“Heading forward, Goldman Sachs thinks many Northeastern, Southeastern, and Midwestern markets could see milder corrections (if any correction at all). In 2023, the investment bank expects home prices to barely fall in places like Chicago (-1.8%) and New York (-0.3%), while its forecast has home prices rising in Baltimore (+0.5%) and Miami (+0.8%) in 2023.”

According to Zillow, the median home value for Miami, Florida rose to approximately $549,000 as of May 2023. That marked a 10.3% increase from a year earlier. This represents a higher level of price growth compared to the national average. The median home value for the nation as a whole rose by a more moderate 3.3% during the same timeframe.

As of spring 2023, there are very few cities or metro areas posting double-digit price gains, like those seen in Miami. That’s one of several ways this particular real estate market stands out.

But we probably shouldn’t expect this kind of double-digit growth to continue for much longer. Our forecast for the Miami real estate market, stretching into 2024, suggests that a slowdown in home-price growth is imminent.

Homes Are Taking a Lot Longer to Sell

Despite the favorable Goldman Sachs outlook mentioned above, the Miami real estate market has undoubtedly slowed down in recent months – a trend that could stretch into 2024 as well.

A pair of reports published in spring 2023 showed that it’s taking a lot longer to sell a home within this metro area, compared to a year earlier.

For example, a May 2023 report from researchers at RE/MAX showed that the Miami, Florida real estate market had one of the highest “days on market” averages of any metro area in the country. (This metric shows how long it takes to sell a home, based on the time between the original listing and the signing of a contract.)

According to that RE/MAX report: “The highest days on market averages were in Fayetteville, AR at 75, Miami, FL at 53, followed by a tie between Des Moines, IA and Phoenix, AZ at 52.”

Similarly, a June 1st report from housing analysts at Realtor.com showed that the Miami-area real estate market experienced one of the biggest increase in “time on market.”

In fact, out of the 50 U.S. metros included in the Realtor.com report, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach metropolitan area had the highest number of days on market for May 2023. No other metro even came close.

According to Realtor.com, homes listed for sale within the Miami metro area housing market spent a median of 63 days on the market. This indicates a relatively slow-moving market where homes are taking longer to sell, compared national average. It’s also affecting home prices.

More Buyers Are Paying Below List Price

During the pandemic-fueled home buying frenzy of 2021, many buyers in the Miami-area real estate market ended up paying more than the list price. Record-low inventory combined with strong demand forced buyers to compete fiercely with one another, driving up the bid price for homes.

But a lot has changed since then. One of our key predictions for the Miami metro housing market in 2024 is that fewer and fewer buyers will pay over the list price.

In fact, we are seeing signs of such a shift already. According to the May 2023 RE/MAX report mentioned above, the Miami, Florida area had the lowest “close-to-list price ratio” among the 49 metro areas they analyzed.

This ratio shows how closely the final selling price of a property aligns with the original listing price. For example, if a house is listed for $300,000 and sells for $270,000, the close-to-list price (a.k.a., “sale-to-list price”) ratio would be 90%.

This ratio provides insight into local real estate market demand and the negotiating power of buyers and sellers. A higher ratio suggests that properties are selling closer to the initial list prices, indicating a stronger market. A lower ratio suggests there are more price reductions and negotiation, indicating a slower market.

To quote the RE/MAX report again:

“The metro areas with the lowest close-to-list price ratio were Miami, FL at 95%, followed by a three-way tie between Coeur d’Alene, ID, New Orleans, LA, and Phoenix, AZ at 97%.”

This suggests that South Florida home buyers have more negotiating leverage these days, compared to the past two or three years. Within the Miami-area real estate market, overheated bidding wars and offers above the list price have become increasingly rare.

Inventory Levels Have Risen Over the Past Year

Over the past year or so, supply levels within the Miami metro area housing market have increased, giving buyers more options. This partly explains the slowdown mentioned above. But despite those gains, supply levels remain low from a historical perspective.

According to the spring 2023 RE/MAX report, the Miami area had one of the highest levels of housing market supply. This is based on the “months of supply” metric, which is used to track inventory levels over time.

Of the 49 metro areas surveyed by RE/MAX, the three metro areas with the highest level of months’ supply were New Orleans at (2.6 months), followed by Coeur d’Alene, Idaho and Miami, Florida (both at 2.5 months).

The bottom line: While the Miami-area real estate market has gained inventory over the past year or so, home buyers still face challenges when it comes to finding a property. If supply levels increase going forward, as some forecasts suggest, the Miami housing market could become even more buyer friendly.

Miami Economy Thrives as Companies Pour In

According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Florida’s Miami-Dade County had an unemployment rate of around 1.8% in April 2023. That’s better than most major cities across the country, and well below the national average of 3.4% during the same month.

This is another reason for our mostly positive predictions relating to the Miami real estate market in 2023 – 2024. The local economy continues to thrive in 2023, which in turn increases demand among home buyers. All of which puts upward pressure on prices.

According to the Miami-Dade Beacon Council, a public-private partnership focused on economic development, a lot of companies are now setting up shop within the Miami metro area.

Toward the end of last year, the Beacon Council said it had “secured commitments from 57 companies looking to expand or relocate to the County, with more than 150 in the pipeline, marking this the highest number of projects secured in the organization’s 37-year history.”

They estimate that these commitments will produce more than 8,000 jobs with competitive wages averaging around $97,000 each. These and other trends could bring more home buyers into the Miami-area real estate market through 2023 and into 2024.

Conclusion and Summary of Predictions

Our general forecast and outlook for the Miami housing market is that home prices will continue to rise over the coming months, but at a slower pace.

Additionally, we believe this market will continue to shift in favor of home buyers, through the second half of 2023 and into 2024.

Higher prices and mortgage rates have reduced demand for homes, resulting in a higher number of days on market. Because of this, sellers will have to be more flexible and willing to negotiate over the sales price.

Disclaimer: This article contains real estate market predictions for the Miami area extending into 2024. These forward-looking views are the equivalent of an educated guess and should be treated as such.

Brandon Cornett

Brandon Cornett is a veteran real estate market analyst, reporter, and creator of the Home Buying Institute. He has been covering the U.S. real estate market for more than 15 years. About the author