A recent Zillow forecast for the Tampa metro area real estate market predicted that the median home value would keep rising through this year and into 2024.
In fact, they predicted that the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area would experience even bigger price gains over the next year compared to the previous one. That’s a very different prediction from most other U.S. cities, which are currently experiencing a slowdown (or even a decline) in home prices.
Here are the latest trends, developments and forecasts for the Tampa, Florida housing market for 2023 and 2024.
Tampa Real Estate Market Forecast Into 2024
The Tampa-area real estate scene has remained resilient despite the challenges faced by other housing markets nationwide. The region’s strong job market, low inventory levels, and growing population have helped to sustain house values.
Looking ahead, through 2023 and into 2024, it seems likely that home prices in the area will continue to rise at a more-or-less steady pace.
Despite these mostly positive predictions, the Tampa real estate market has undergone some changes with the past couple of years.
For one thing, home prices and mortgage rates are significantly higher today than they were a year ago. So a lot of would-be home buyers are currently being priced out of the market. This is especially true for low- and moderate-income buyers, who tend to shop at the lower end of the pricing spectrum.
Even so, the Tampa-area housing market is expected to continue appreciating through this year and into next. One forecast even suggested that prices will rise more over the next 12 months than they did during the past year. That prediction came from researchers at Zillow.
According to Zillow, the median home value for the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area was around $368,000 in May 2023. The company predicted that prices would rise by 6.7 % during the 12-month period from April 2023 to April 2024.
That prediction seems a bit bullish to us, based on the reduction in buyer demand mentioned above. But then again, these forecasts are the equivalent of an educated guess. So we shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the exact numbers being projected here.
The point is, home prices within the Tampa-area real estate market are expected to continue climbing through 2023 and into 2024.
Supply Levels Dropping Again in 2023
Home price and housing market forecasts for the Tampa area are often based on supply and demand factors within the local market. The interplay between these two factors can determine everything from the level of competition to the rate of home-price appreciation.
In 2023, the Tampa real estate market is once again experiencing a decline in inventory levels. This reflects a broader trend happening in cities all across the country, as of late spring 2023.
Higher mortgage rates are being blamed as one of the causes for this decline. A lot of homeowners have lower mortgage rates than the current market rates we’re seeing right now. This makes them reluctant to list their homes for sale, since they would likely take on a higher rate with their next purchase.
In March 2022, the Tampa area had about a 0.7-month supply of homes for sale. In contrast, a “balanced” real estate market has about a 5-month supply of homes. So it was a very tight market last year, partly due to the pandemic-fueled home-buying surge of 2021.
But by January 2023, inventory levels rose to about a 3.5-month supply in this metro area, giving buyers more options and negotiating leverage.
Unfortunately, this supply growth trend didn’t last long. During the first few months of 2023, supply levels within the Tampa-area housing market began to drop again. As of April, it was down to about a 1.7-month supply of homes for sale. That’s better than last year, but still well below normal.
A June 2023 Realtor.com report showed that the number of new listings declined by more than 25% over the past year. This means there are fewer new listings coming onto the market these days, compared to a year ago.
Our Tampa real estate forecast for the rest of 2023 and into 2024 predicts that tighter inventory conditions will increase demand among buyers. These trends will also put upward pressure on home prices, likely leading to steady price growth for the foreseeable future.
Tampa Housing Market Could Accelerate In 2023
Like most major metropolitan areas, the real estate market in Tampa, Florida has slowed down over the past year or so. We’ve already covered some of the reasons for this, including higher prices and mortgage rates.
But unlike most of those other metros, the Tampa-area housing market appears to be accelerating into the second half of 2023.
In April of last year, when local real estate activity was at its peak, homes listed for sale in the Tampa area spent a median of just seven days on the market. They were getting snatched up quickly due to stiff competition among buyers.
A year later, in April 2023, the median number of “days on market” had risen to around 31, signaling a slowdown. Since then, the typical time on market has been dropping steadily. This suggests that the market is speeding up again, in terms of how long it takes to sell a house.
We can also see signs of a faster sales pace by looking at the percentage of homes that go under contract within two weeks. At the start of 2023, roughly 35% of homes sold in the Tampa area were off market within two weeks’ time. But since then, that percentage has risen steadily.
This shows that properties are selling more quickly as of late spring 2023, compared to the beginning of the year.
Here’s the bottom line to all of these statistics:
While the market has clearly slowed down over the past 12 to 18 months, it appears to be accelerating again in 2023. This supports our general prediction that the Tampa real estate scene could become more competitive for buyers over the coming months and into 2024.
A Strong Economy and a Growing Population
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate in Tampa, Florida was down to 2.3% in April 2023. That was lower than the state of Florida as well as the national average. In fact, the Tampa metro area currently has one of the best employment levels in the country.
A strong local economy supports the real estate market in two ways:
- It makes the area more attractive to people relocating from elsewhere, bringing more buyers into the market.
- It also gives local residents the confidence and financial capacity needed to purchase a home, thereby increasing demand.
The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area has also experienced significant population growth over the past few years.
According to a March 2023 report from the U.S. Census Bureau: “Three Florida counties (Polk, Lee and Hillsborough) also were among the largest gaining in 2022, collectively adding 92,848 residents.” Hillsborough County encompasses the city of Tampa.
From 2021 to 2022, Hillsborough County was the eighth fastest growing county in the United States, gaining nearly 29,000 new residents. The broader Tampa metro area is now home to more than 3 million people.
These population growth trends have increased housing demand among both renters and buyers. This is one reason why most forecasts for the Tampa-area real estate market suggest continued price growth into 2024.
Disclaimer: This report contains long-range predictions for the housing market in Tampa, Florida. Such views are the equivalent of an educated guess. The Home Buying Institute makes no guarantees about future economic or housing trends.
Brandon Cornett is a veteran real estate market analyst, reporter, and creator of the Home Buying Institute. He has been covering the U.S. real estate market for more than 15 years. About the author