{"id":6403,"date":"2024-12-19T19:52:46","date_gmt":"2024-12-20T02:52:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/homebuyinginstitute.com\/mortgage\/?p=6403"},"modified":"2026-10-24T13:59:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T20:59:30","slug":"will-texas-home-prices-rise-or-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/homebuyinginstitute.com\/mortgage\/will-texas-home-prices-rise-or-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"Texas Home Prices in 2027: Forecast and Market Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Editor’s Note: This forecast was originally published in 2024 but has been updated to reflect current market conditions in Texas, with a home price forecast for 2027.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas home prices have been falling over the past year, and they might have further to fall. We expect prices in most Texas housing markets to remain flat in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five key takeaways from this report:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Statewide, Texas home prices dropped by about 1.4% over the past year, with most major cities posting a modest decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. El Paso is the one exception. Prices in that city rose 2.6% over the past year, because there are fewer homes for sale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. We expect Texas home prices to stay mostly flat in 2027, with only a modest fluctuation one way or the other.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Three factors are contributing to this trend: high housing costs, lots of new construction, and consumer pessimism.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. But even after falling from the 2022 peak, Texas’s average home price is still about $75,000 higher than pre-pandemic.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Keep up with the market:<\/strong> Our weekly newsletter delivers expert analysis and insights straight to your inbox, every Thursday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Sign<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Texas Home Prices Declined Over the Past Year<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    In most Texas cities, home prices have declined slightly over the past year. According to Zillow, the statewide average home price declined by 1.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Higher housing costs, buyer hesitancy, and inventory surpluses are the main factors putting downward pressure on home prices across Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This table:<\/strong> The average home price for Texas and its most populous cities, and how they’ve changed over the past year. Source: Zillow HVI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    City<\/strong><\/td>Average Price (Fall 2026)<\/strong><\/td>Price Change YoY<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
    Texas (Statewide)<\/td>$296,424<\/td>-1.4%<\/td><\/tr>
    Houston, TX<\/td>$259,465<\/td>-2.1%<\/td><\/tr>
    San Antonio, TX<\/td>$244,623<\/td>-2.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    Dallas, TX<\/td>$303,442<\/td>-1.4%<\/td><\/tr>
    Austin, TX<\/td>$491,960<\/td>-3.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    Fort Worth, TX<\/td>$292,949<\/td>-1.6%<\/td><\/tr>
    El Paso, TX<\/td>$237,556<\/td>+2.6%<\/td><\/tr>
    Arlington, TX<\/td>$306,472<\/td>-0.5%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    As you can see, home prices are down across most of Texas, with the El Paso housing market bucking the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    El Paso Bucked the Trend With Rising Prices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    El Paso stands out as the only major city or metro area in Texas with a year-over-year increase in home prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    House values have been trending downward just about everywhere else in the Lone Star State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Shrinking supply is the main reason for this anomaly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to a September 2026 report<\/a> from Realtor.com:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    “If you’re shopping in El Paso, you have fewer homes to choose from than buyers did a year ago. Active listings fell 16.6%<\/strong> year-over-year\u2014a sharp contrast to the national market, where inventory actually grew 3.6% over the same period.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    The authors added that El Paso “bucked the national trend” for prices as well, posting a 4% year-over-year increase<\/strong> in its median list price, even as the nationwide median declined<\/strong> by 1.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But for the rest of Texas, home prices have been mostly flat or down slightly in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Outlook for 2027: Prices Remaining Mostly Flat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Given current economic and housing market trends, the most likely forecast is that Texas home prices will remain mostly flat during 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Long-range price predictions are hard to make in the best times\u2014and even harder during periods of international conflict, inflation, and consumer pessimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But we can use current and historical market trends to make an educated guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Here are some “best guess” forecasts for Texas home prices in 2027:<\/p>\n\n\n\n