{"id":6825,"date":"2025-03-15T14:10:59","date_gmt":"2025-03-15T21:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/homebuyinginstitute.com\/mortgage\/?p=6825"},"modified":"2025-03-23T08:30:17","modified_gmt":"2025-03-23T15:30:17","slug":"housing-market-crash-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/homebuyinginstitute.com\/mortgage\/housing-market-crash-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Trump’s Economic Shakeup Crash the Housing Market in 2025?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Recent surveys have shown that consumer confidence in the United States is sinking. Going forward, this trend could deliver a blow to the housing market and broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much of this uncertainty stems from ever-shifting Trump policies that have rattled everyone from Wall Street to Main Street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that brings us to the key question central to this report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could Trump’s policies and economic shakeup lead to a real estate market crash in 2025? And how might that scenario play out?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short answer:<\/strong> While no one can predict future housing trends with total accuracy, the unfolding economic drama could destabilize the market and erode home prices later this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Will the Trump Shuffle Affect the Economy?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since taking office in January, Trump has implemented a number of policies and actions that have disrupted everything from global alliances to the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These changes include, but are not limited to, the initiation of a trade war and the wholesale gutting of the federal workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump’s actions on tariffs and trade, in particular, have sent ripples of uncertainty and hesitancy throughout the U.S. economy and supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs are a tax paid by importers that often gets passed along to consumers. Historically, they have been shown to create inflationary pressure and cause economic pain. Tariffs can also lead to retaliation from trading partners<\/a> like Canada, which can hurt all those involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Import taxes can cause economic damage in another way: by making it harder for businesses to make routine business decisions, like which supplies to use and what prices to set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This kind of “wait and see” mentality can cause businesses to delay or cancel investments, all of which can slow economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“It creates an enormous amount of uncertainty for multinational companies that sell products worldwide, that import from the rest of the world, that run these complex supply chains through multiple countries. The uncertainty is going to be very unsettling for businesses and … it will hurt business investment.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Americans Think It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In addition to hindering businesses, economic uncertainties can also have a psychological impact on consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consumer pessimism can cause disastrous effects over time, because consumer spending makes up a huge part<\/a> of the U.S. economy. In some ways, our economy is like a house of cards built around consumer spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In early 2025, many consumers are feeling pessimistic toward both the real estate market and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Fannie Mae’s latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 23% to 22%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 77% to 78%.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

And here’s a quote from a recent University of Michigan consumer survey:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“Consumer sentiment extended its early month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January [2025]. The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Worst of all (from an economic standpoint), Trump’s policies seem to change from one week to the next, which only adds to the general uncertainty felt by many.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Housing Market Forecasts Being Downgraded<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In recent weeks, several prominent housing market forecasts have been downgraded due to growing economic uncertainties and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, a February 2025 real estate forecast from Zillow stated<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“Zillow’s latest forecast anticipates home value growth in 2025 to be weaker than previously expected, with existing home sales projected to rise but only slightly compared to 2024.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Zillow forecasts home values to increase by just 0.9% this year, a drop from the previous expectation of 2.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect these forecasts to change further over the coming weeks, possibly moving into negative territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Impact on New Home Construction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Economic uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies appear to be having a negative impact on home builders as well, and this could affect inventory levels going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Association of Home Builders recently predicted that single-family housing starts would grow by a meager 0.2% during 2025. This wouldn’t even make a dent in the ongoing housing shortage affecting real estate markets nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a February 2025 report from Realtor.com:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“Homebuilders say they are encouraged by Trump’s push to cut regulations and extend tax cuts. However, they fear new tariffs on building materials could raise the cost of building new homes.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In other words: higher tariffs on materials could drive up construction costs, resulting in fewer new homes and higher prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Realistic Real Estate Crash Scenario<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

No one can predict future real estate market or economic trends with complete accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we can<\/em> use historical precedent and general logic to paint a realistic scenario of how Trump’s domestic and economic policies might lead to a housing market crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Real<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After all, we’ve been through several market crashes before. So we know how they work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s what the sequence of events might look like in this case:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Policy Uncertainty and Business Disruption<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Trump’s aggressive policies (tariffs, mass deportations, layoffs, trade wars) increase uncertainty in the economy. Businesses face higher input costs and disrupted supply chains, and industries hit by mass layoffs grow more cautious about future investments. We’ve already seen some of this uncertainty in sharply declining consumer sentiment and increased market volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Decline in Consumer Confidence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With the economy in disarray, consumers become fearful<\/a>. Surveys show that even when traditional economic indicators remain strong, sentiment can decline sharply if people feel uncertain about the future. Widespread layoffs and fears about job security or reduced income make consumers reluctant to spend on big-ticket items like home purchases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Reduced Business Investment, Slower Job Growth<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As companies delay or cancel new projects due to higher uncertainty, investment slows down. The cumulative effect of layoffs and reduced hiring causes job growth to falter, which in turn puts downward pressure on wage growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower disposable income means that fewer households can afford the high prices of homes, reducing overall demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Tightening of Credit Conditions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Financial institutions (conservative and cautious by nature) become even more wary of the uncertain economic outlook. Mortgage lenders may tighten credit standards, making it harder for potential buyers to obtain financing. Even households with decent credit might encounter higher interest rates or stricter requirements, further shrinking the pool of buyers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Home Price Erosion and Increased Mortgage Defaults<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As housing demand wanes, home prices start to decline. Homeowners who recently purchased at high prices may face negative equity, where their mortgage debt exceeds the value of their homes. This scenario increases the risk of defaults and foreclosures, which can further depress prices in a vicious cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Feedback Loop and Market Downturn<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Declining home values erode household wealth, which further reduces consumer spending. As the real estate market slows down significantly, both homeowners and builders face financial losses. All of this creates a feedback loop that deepens the downturn, potentially culminating in a major crash in the housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One could argue that we’ve already moved through phases 1 and 2 of this scenario, with phase 3 likely in the very near future. But beyond that is anyone’s guess.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent surveys have shown that consumer confidence in the United States is sinking. Going forward, this trend could deliver a blow to the housing market and broader economy. Much of this uncertainty stems from ever-shifting Trump policies that have rattled everyone from Wall Street to Main Street. 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