{"id":7465,"date":"2025-09-07T13:58:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-07T20:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/homebuyinginstitute.com\/mortgage\/?p=7465"},"modified":"2025-09-07T18:54:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T01:54:14","slug":"good-time-to-buy-in-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/homebuyinginstitute.com\/mortgage\/good-time-to-buy-in-texas\/","title":{"rendered":"Why 2026 Could Be a Good Time to Buy a Home in Texas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Housing affordability in Texas has improved due to falling home prices and mortgage rates, setting buyers up for success in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are five things to know right up front:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Texas home prices declined by 2.4% over the past year (as of Sept. 2025).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Prices will likely fall a bit further before finding a bottom.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Mortgage rates recently fell to their lowest level since October 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. These two trends have created a more affordable housing market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Buyers also have more bargaining power and properties to choose from.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Have you subscribed?<\/strong> Our weekly newsletter will keep you up to speed on real estate market conditions across Texas. Sign up today<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Alert: Texas Home Prices Are Still Dropping<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Heads up:<\/strong> Home buyers should know that house prices in many Texas cities are currently dropping and might have further to fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It usually doesn’t make sense to buy a house when prices are falling. Depreciating values can leave buyers “underwater” on their mortgages and unable to build equity as fast as they’d like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While no one can predict future real estate trends with complete accuracy, we believe Texas home prices will “bottom out” in late 2025 and begin inching upward in early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The big caveat:<\/strong> Home price trends can vary significantly from one city to the next. So be sure to research your local market<\/a> before making decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why 2026 Could Be a Good Year for Buyers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    We touched on some of the reasons why 2026 could be a good time to buy a house in the Lone Star State. Now let’s dig deeper by exploring them one at a time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Why<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    1. Home prices are (probably) about to hit bottom.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Home prices across much of Texas have declined a bit over the past year, improving affordability for buyers at a time when it’s much needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to a September 2025 statement from Zillow: “The average Texas home value is $304,005, down 2.4% over the past year.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some forecasters believe prices will stabilize later this year or early next, creating a window of opportunity for bargain-seeking home buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    When people say home prices are “reaching the bottom,” they’re referring to the lowest point in a housing market cycle. Housing markets don’t move in a straight line\u2014they rise for a while, then cool off, sometimes fall, and eventually recover again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    When prices are falling (as they currently are in Texas), the “bottom” is the point where they stop dropping and level out before starting to climb again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For buyers, the bottom of the cycle can be an attractive time to purchase because homes are usually more affordable than they’ve been in years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But it’s not always easy to spot the bottom while you’re in it\u2014you usually only know for sure once prices have already started rising again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The takeaway:<\/strong> If the Texas housing market bottoms out later this year, it could make 2026 an even better time to buy a home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2. Mortgage rates have eased, improving affordability.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Like home prices, mortgage rates have also been trending downward lately, improving the affordability picture for home buyers in Texas and nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    During the first week of September 2025, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.5%\u2014its lowest level since October 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to a recent statement from Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates continue to trend down, increasing optimism for new buyers and current owners alike.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Economists expect rates to hover in their current range through the rest of this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For example, Fannie Mae predicted<\/a> that average 30-year mortgage rates will end 2025 at 6.5%. They also expect rates to ease further in 2026, possibly falling to 6.1% by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The takeaway:<\/strong> Mortgage rates dropped over the past year and are not expected to spike again anytime soon. This could give Texas home buyers more purchasing power in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3. Inventory has risen, giving home buyers more choices.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    According to data collected by Redfin<\/a>, Texas currently has about a 5-month supply of homes for sale. That’s more inventory than last year, and miles above the record lows seen during the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For comparison, “months of supply” for the U.S. as a whole is currently at around 3.5 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This shows that Texas home buyers have more properties to choose from compared to previous years, and more supply than most other U.S. states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While inventory has risen in all of Texas’s major metros, the Austin area leads the way when it comes to the number of homes for sale. Austin is basically a buyer’s paradise right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The takeaway:<\/strong> In 2026, Texas home buyers will have more properties to consider compared to previous years. This increases the chance of finding a suitable property within budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    4. Homes are taking longer <\/strong>to sell, giving buyers an edge.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Last month, homes listed for sale across Texas spent a median of 55 days on the market before going under contract. That was well above the national median of 43 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This metric has trended upward over the past year. This means the Texas real estate market has slowed down and homes are now taking longer to sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A slower market gives buyers more leverage. Sellers become more willing to negotiate on price, offer concessions like covering closing costs, or agree to repairs\u2014things they might not do in a hotter market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is what economists refer to as “buyer-friendly” market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We expect these conditions to continue through the rest of this year and into next, adding to the reasons why 2026 could be a good year for Texas home buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The takeaway:<\/strong> Supply gains have given house hunters more time to shop and more power at the bargaining table, increasing the chance for success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    5. Sellers are more willing to negotiate over price.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Fewer homes in Texas are selling above the list price, compared to previous years. In summer 2025, for example, only about 12% of for-sale properties end up selling for more than the asking price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In a hot market where sellers have a big advantage, we often see 50% or more of homes selling above asking price\u2014and sometimes up to 70%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But in Texas, most properties are currently selling at or below the list, with a higher number of sellers reducing their prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This bodes well for buyers planning a purchase later this year or during the first quarter of 2026. It shows that the balance of power has shifted away from sellers and toward buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With fewer homes getting bids above asking, sellers are more likely to consider offers below list price, accept requests for repairs or credits, or contribute to the buyer’s closing costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The takeaway:<\/strong> Buying at a time like this means fewer bidding wars, more room to negotiate, and a better chance of getting a good deal without having to waive protections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Buy Now or Wait Until 2026?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    We expect most of these buyer-friendly conditions to remain in place through the end of this year and into 2026\u2014with one key exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Home prices could actually fall further between now and then, improving the affordability picture for buyers even more. That’s the biggest variable in all of this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This leads to one of the most common questions among buyers in Texas:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    “Should I buy a home now or wait until 2026?”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Timing the bottom is hard because housing markets are complicated and driven by lots of unpredictable things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There’s also a data lag that makes it hard to know what exactly is happening in the present\u2014until after<\/em> it happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Here are some best practices that apply to most<\/em> buyers in Texas:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Don’t try to pick the exact bottom. Instead, focus on your timing: how long you’ll live in the home, job stability, budget, and whether the monthly payment fits comfortably.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Use market signals (days on market, price cuts, percent selling above list) to see whether your neighborhood is trending toward recovery. But treat them as clues, not guarantees.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Protect yourself with contingencies, realistic offers backed by comps, and a plan to refinance if rates fall.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • If you expect to stay 5+ years, small timing errors matter less. Long-term ownership smooths out short-term market noise.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Here are some general guidelines for buying now versus waiting:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Lean toward buying now if: you plan to stay 5+ years, have a solid down payment and emergency fund, can tolerate short-term price moves, and you find a property that fits your budget and needs at a sensible price.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Lean toward waiting if: you expect to move in a few years, you’d need to stretch finances to buy, you want to avoid the risk of a near-term price drop, or you believe you can save a larger down payment and still get similar inventory later.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        And here are five key trends to watch over the coming months:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        1. Local days-on-market and percent of sales above list.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        2. Number of recent price cuts in your target neighborhood.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        3. Mortgage rate direction from your lender or trusted national surveys.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        4. Local job news or big employers moving in\/out (affects demand).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        5. New listings and inventory; higher inventory usually favors buyers.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          Conclusion and Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          Falling prices, lower mortgage rates, rising inventory and longer days on market are giving buyers more choices and bargaining power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          If these conditions persist, 2026 could be a good time to buy in Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          But local conditions matter most. So watch neighborhood signals, run the numbers for pricing and affordability, and only buy when your finances and timeline make sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Disclaimer:<\/em><\/strong> This article is for general information and does not constitute financial, legal, or real estate advice. The publisher makes no assertions about future housing market conditions.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Housing affordability in Texas has improved due to falling home prices and mortgage rates, setting buyers up for success in 2026. Here are five things to know right up front: Have you subscribed? Our weekly newsletter will keep you up to speed on real estate market conditions across Texas. Sign up today. Alert: Texas Home Prices Are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7467,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-texas"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy 2026 Could Be a Good Time to Buy a Home in Texas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If home prices continue to fall as expected, 2026 could be a very good time to buy a home in Texas. 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