Key highlights from this report:
- The Boise, Idaho housing market has been in the news a lot lately.
- It received one of Realtor.com’s strongest forecasts for 2021.
- It also topped the list of “shrinking” markets with low inventory.
- Home prices in Boise should continue to climb at a steady pace in 2021.
- Home buyers, meanwhile, could have a hard time finding a property.
The real estate market in Boise, Idaho has been red-hot lately, with buyers competing fiercely for limited inventory. This market currently has one of the biggest imbalances between supply and demand, among the nation’s largest metro areas.
So it’s no surprise that the latest forecasts for the Boise housing market in 2021 point to steadily rising home prices.
Boise Housing Market Remains Hot
Boise, Idaho has been crossing our radar a lot lately. It seems that any time a new real estate market report comes out, ranking the strongest or “hottest” cities in the U.S., Boise appears high on the list.
We recently wrote about a 2021 housing market forecast from the research team at Realtor.com They predicted that Boise, Idaho would be one of the top metro areas in the country, in terms of year-over-year home price growth. Out of the 100 U.S. metro areas analyzed, Idaho’s capital city took the #3 spot. Only San Jose and Seattle received a stronger price forecast.
Back in November, we shared a similar report from Realtor.com that ranked U.S. housing markets in terms of inventory decline. That report showed which metro areas had experienced the biggest declines in housing inventory (i.e., the number of homes for sale) during 2020. This time, the Boise housing market came in at #1.
A Bold Real Estate Forecast for 2021
Real estate analysts from Zillow have also issued an above-average forecast for Boise, Idaho. By their estimate, home prices in the area rose by more than 18% over the past year or so. That was more than double the national average of 7.5% for that same 12-month period. They predicted strong price growth throughout 2021, as well.
In December, Zillow’s website stated:
“The typical home value of homes in Boise is $391,754. This value is seasonally adjusted and only includes the middle price tier of homes. Boise home values have gone up 18.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 12.8% in the next year.”
The chart below, created by Zillow, illustrates the housing market statistics mentioned above. It shows the median home value in Boise, Idaho over the past decade. It also shows the company’s price forecast for this real estate market, stretching into 2021.
In the eight years spanning from 2012 to 2020, the median home value for Boise, Idaho more than doubled. That’s a significant rate of appreciation, and well above the national average.
As we approach 2021, the Boise housing market has some of the fastest-rising home values among U.S. metro areas. And that trend could continue for the foreseeable future.
One of the Fastest-Growing Metro Areas
So here we have a real estate market where inventory has fallen sharply and home prices have climbed. But there’s a third piece to this puzzle — population growth.
The Boise area’s population has grown significantly over the past few years, especially in cities like Nampa and Meridian. Meridian, which is part of the greater Boise metropolitan area, is currently one of the fastest-growing cities in America. Nampa, Idaho is not far behind it.
Population growth from April 2010 to July 2019:
- United States: +6.3%
- Boise, ID: +9.3%
- Meridian, ID: +48.3%
- Nampa, ID: 28.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau data, December 2020
The Boise metro area is growing much faster than nearly every other metropolitan area in the U.S. That’s especially true for the city of Meridian, which has grown at a pace eight times faster than the national average.
The largest influx of residents has come from Washington, Oregon and California, many of whom are seeking more affordable home prices.
According to a December 2020 housing market report from Realtor.com:
“[Boise] is firmly establishing itself as a rising tech hub in the U.S. The area’s high quality of life and strong economy draw people from all over the country, with the biggest influx coming from Washington, Oregon and California. This trend has accelerated as the ability to work remotely has drawn many young workers looking for a slower pace of life, increased affordability, and access to the area’s many outdoor amenities.”
All of this growth has increased demand for homes in the area, while reducing inventory levels at the same time. You don’t have to be an economist to know that such trends tend to boost prices. And that’s largely why Boise housing market forecasts for 2021 suggest steadily rising home values.
Boise Home Buyers Should Be Prepared
Planning to buy a home in Boise, Idaho in 2021? So are a lot of other folks, and there’s not nearly enough inventory to go around. Buyer beware.
As of November 2020, all major cities within the Boise metro area had less than a 0.5-month supply of homes for sale. The nation as a whole had about a 1.6-month supply level during that same month, and even that is considered very low.
To call this a “tight” housing market is a huge understatement.
This is another reason for the bold real estate forecasts for Boise, Idaho, extending into 2021. There just aren’t enough homes available to satisfy the demand from buyers, and that has prices climbing steadily.
A recent analysis from Forbes put this into perspective:
“Last October [2019], the Boise metro area had 3,357 homes available for sale. A year later, that number had plummeted to 486 homes available for sale as of October 2020 — a decline of 85.5%.”
And this comes at a time when the population is growing steadily.
As a result of these trends, home buyers in the Boise area could have a hard time finding the right property at the right price. This is especially true for first-time buyers, who tend to shop in the lower price range where inventory is tightest.
Buyers planning to make a purchase in 2021 will want to make a strong initial offer, while realizing that the seller is in the driver’s seat. That’s the current reality, and it probably won’t change anytime soon.
Disclaimer: This article contains real estate predictions for Boise, Idaho extending into 2021. Those projections were issued by third parties not associated with the Home Buying Institute and are the equivalent of an educated guess.