Note: Our Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market forecast was updated in August 2025 with new data, with a long-range outlook extending into summer 2026.
According to Zillow, the DFW housing market is expected to see additional price declines between now and the summer of 2026. That’s just one of the Dallas real estate predictions covered in this recently updated report.
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5 Dallas Housing Market Predictions for 2026
If you follow real estate news, you probably already know that the Dallas-area housing market has cooled considerably over the past few years.
Home prices have dropped, buyers have pulled back, and properties are staying on the market for longer stretches of time.
Many forecasters expect these cooler conditions to continue through the rest of 2025 and into 2026, with a real estate market that increasingly favors buyers.
With that in mind, here are five “safe bet” predictions for the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market covering the 12-month period into summer 2026.
1. Home prices will remain flat or dip slightly.
Dallas-Fort Worth home prices have already shown some signs of easing. According to Zillow, the median home price for the DFW metro area dropped by 3.3% over the past year.
Looking forward, we expect prices to decline a bit more over the next year or so, extending into summer of 2026. Beyond that, it’s difficult to predict.
During the second half of 2026, DFW home values could hit bottom and start to climb again, but at a much slower pace than what we’ve seen in the past.
The median home price for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area is currently around $375,000. It could drop down toward $350,000 by the second half of 2026.
Why it’s a safe prediction: High mortgage rates, slower economic growth, and reduced buyer demand have already put downward pressure on prices in Dallas-Fort Worth. These conditions are still in place and unlikely to change dramatically in the short term, making it reasonable to expect little to no price growth—and possibly modest declines—over the next year.
2. Inventory growth will give buyers more choices.
The Dallas housing market has experienced steady inventory growth over the past year, as more homes have come onto the market. New home construction has increased, as well.
This growth trend will give DFW home buyers more options to choose from, more time to consider them, and a lower chance of encountering a bidding war.
When compared to the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex had the fourth-largest increase in active inventory (homes for sale) over the past year.
The DFW housing market currently has a lot more homes for sale than before the pandemic. This has shifted the broader supply-and-demand dynamic in a way that benefits buyers.
Forecasts suggest the Dallas real estate market will see additional inventory growth through 2025 and into 2026. This could give buyers more bargaining power in 2026.
Why it’s a safe prediction: Higher mortgage rates have cooled demand, while steady new home construction and more existing listings have pushed inventory levels up. Without a sudden surge in buyers, these conditions are likely to persist, giving buyers more selection, more time to decide, and less competition overall.
3. Dallas could become a buyer’s market by early 2026.
In 2025, there are fewer buyers in the DFW area who are able to afford a home purchase. This reduces demand at a time when supply levels are rising.
Over time, the current trajectory could turn the Dallas area into one big buyer’s market (with a few hotter micro-markets scattered here and there).
In DFW, homes are taking longer to sell and many sellers are offering more incentives than in the past. Both of these trends signal a shift away from the hot seller’s market and toward a more balanced market—or even a buyer’s market.
Why it’s a safe prediction: With demand slowing and inventory rising, market balance is already tilting toward buyers. Unless there’s an unexpected drop in mortgage rates or a sharp jump in demand, these trends will continue, making a buyer-friendly market the inevitable outcome.
4. Mortgage rates will stay elevated, limiting affordability.
In summer 2025, mortgage rates have been hovering between 6.6% and 6.7%.
While those aren’t the highest rates we’ve ever seen, they’re miles above the pandemic lows that averaged around 3%. In other words, borrowing is more expensive.
Mortgage rates have inched downward in recent weeks, as of mid-August 2025. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that a small drop in rates probably won’t move the needle much when it comes to housing market affordability.
According to a July 2025 report from Zillow:
“Affordability for home buyers has improved slightly nationwide over the last year. Price growth has flattened out, mortgage rates have been marginally lower and income growth has forged ahead. But affordability challenges are still holding back buyers, especially those without equity from a previous home to fund their next purchase.”
According to their analysis: To make a “typical home” in the U.S. affordable for a median-income buyer with 20% down, 30-year mortgage rates would need to fall to around 4.4%. Analysts don’t expect them to drop below 6% anytime soon.
We forecast that home loan interest rates will remain above 6% for the foreseeable future and into 2026, continuing to limit demand among buyers.
Why it’s a safe prediction: Analysts expect interest rates to remain well above pre-2022 lows for the foreseeable future, with only gradual declines ahead. Without a significant drop, borrowing costs will stay high, keeping affordability challenges in place.
5. Market conditions will vary widely across the DFW area.
The Dallas-Fort Worth housing market has become increasingly fragmented, with different counties, cities, and neighborhoods following their own trajectories.
In some areas, prices are falling sharply, while others are holding steady—or even rising.
Northern counties known for rapid growth and top-rated schools, such as parts of Collin and Denton, have seen some of the steepest price declines. Heavy new home construction in suburbs like Celina, Prosper, and Fate has created a large supply of homes that now competes directly with the resale market, adding more downward pressure on prices.
In contrast, closer-in urban neighborhoods have seen much slower growth in inventory. This tighter supply could help those markets maintain more price stability, even as other areas experience larger drops.
The Dallas-area real estate market is also split by price point.
Recent data shows that while starter and mid-tier homes declined by more than 3% in price, the luxury segment gained 3.5%. Higher-end buyers tend to be less affected by mortgage rate fluctuations and affordability issues. This helps to insulate that segment from broader market pressures.
For buyers, sellers, and agents, this “market within a market” reality means metro-wide statistics can be misleading. Understanding the hyper-local trends in each community will be essential for making informed decisions in 2026.
Why it’s a safe prediction: Large metro areas like DFW rarely move in lockstep, and current conditions are already creating uneven results. These localized differences are well established and unlikely to disappear in the near future, making continued variation across micro-markets a near certainty.
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As you can see, there’s a lot of change happening within the Dallas-area housing market, and predictions suggest a continued shift going forward.
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About the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW)
The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, colloquially known as “DFW,” is a sprawling metropolitan area located in North Texas. It is the fourth-largest metropolitan area in the United States and the economic and cultural center of the region.
Major Cities
The Metroplex encompasses two major urban centers and numerous suburbs and smaller cities. Here’s a breakdown:
- Dallas: The most well-known city in the Metroplex, Dallas is a hub of commerce, finance, and culture, home to numerous Fortune 500 company headquarters.
- Fort Worth: Often described as “Where the West Begins,” Fort Worth maintains a distinct cowboy and Western heritage while having its own dynamic business and cultural scene.
- Other Major Cities: Plano, Irving, Arlington, Garland, McKinney, Frisco, and Denton are among the other notable cities within DFW.
Population
As of the most recent U.S. Census, the DFW Metroplex has a population of over 7.6 million residents. It continues to be one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the nation, adding hundreds of thousands of new residents each year. This brings more home buyers into the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market, boosting competition and putting upward pressure on prices.
Geography
DFW encompasses 13 counties in North Texas, covering a vast expanse of over 9,200 square miles. The landscape is primarily flat prairie with areas of gently rolling hills. Trinity River is the major waterway flowing through the Metroplex.
Economy
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy is highly diversified, providing a broad range of employment opportunities across numerous industries. Key sectors in 2025 include:
- Corporate headquarters: Major Fortune 500 companies headquartered in DFW include AT&T, ExxonMobil, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, and more.
- Finance and banking: The region boasts a strong presence in financial services.
- Technology: DFW is sometimes called the “Silicon Prairie” due to its expanding tech sector.
- Healthcare: Numerous major hospitals and medical centers are headquartered in DFW.
- Logistics and Distribution: The Metroplex’s central location and strong transportation infrastructure make it a key hub for logistics and distribution.
Things to Know When Relocating
- Cost of Living: DFW generally has a lower cost of living than many major cities, especially when it comes to housing-related costs.
- Culture and Attractions: The region offers a wealth of cultural and entertainment options, including world-class museums, performing arts venues, professional sports teams (Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers, Dallas Mavericks, etc.), and popular nightlife and dining districts.
- Transportation: The region has a network of major highways, but can experience traffic congestion. DART (Dallas Area Rapid Transit) provides light rail and bus services. DFW International Airport and Dallas Love Field are major air transportation hubs.
- Climate: The Metroplex is classified as humid subtropical, meaning hot summers and generally mild winters with occasional cold spells.
Additional Resources
- Visit Dallas: https://www.visitdallas.com
- Fort Worth Convention and Visitors Bureau: https://www.fortworth.com
Disclaimers: This report contains forecasts and predictions for the Dallas-area real estate market extending through 2025 and into 2026. Such projections represent an educated “best guess” based on current housing market conditions. No one can predict future real estate trends with complete accuracy. The Home Buying Institute (HBI) makes no claims about future trends.