Forecasts for the Florida housing market suggest the market will remain cool and continue to favor buyers through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. But conditions can vary significantly from one city to the next.
Florida’s housing market is more balanced in 2026 than during the pandemic boom. Buyers have more choices, homes take longer to sell, and prices have cooled and even declined in most areas.
But at the same time, sales activity has improved from last year’s softer levels, showing that buyer demand remains steady.
5 Things to Take Away From This Report
- Florida home prices have flattened or declined over the past year (depending on the source and metric you look at).
- Inventory has increased significantly, especially in the condo and townhouse segment. This gives buyers more options and more leverage.
- Statewide, the housing market is a little more balanced for single-family homes, while the condo and townhome market strongly favors buyers.
- Home sales and pending sales have risen from a year ago, but demand is still being impacted by higher mortgage rates.
- Florida’s short-term forecast appears softer than the national outlook. Realtor.com projected price declines for the state’s largest metros.
Florida Home Price Trends in 2026
Florida home prices have clearly lost momentum.
Florida Realtors reported that the statewide median sale price for existing single-family homes was $412,000 in February, down 0.7% year over year.
Zillow reported an even bigger decline in home values over the past year, using a slightly different measurement approach.
According to an April 2026 Zillow report: “The average Florida home value is $372,755, down 4.6% over the past year.” The following graph is based on their data.
In the condo-townhouse category, the statewide median price was $309,000 in February, down by 1.9% over the past year.
Realtor.com’s Florida market page also points to a cooler pricing environment, with the state’s median sale price at $420,000.
These sources use different metrics but suggest the same thing: home prices are soft and could remain that way through 2026 and into 2027.
A Weak Price Forecast Stretching Into 2027?
Florida housing market forecasts for 2026 predict more of the same, with price weakness expected to continue through this year and possibly into 2027.
At the end of 2025, Realtor.com analysts made the following prediction:
“Across Florida’s eight largest metro areas, median sales prices for existing homes and condos are projected to fall an average of 1.9% in 2026, well below the 2.2% positive gain the forecast expects nationally.”
But housing market conditions can vary from one city to the next. Florida is a big state, and some markets are holding up better than others.
Still, the statewide outlook for 2026 looks much softer than the rapid gains seen during the pandemic period. That’s one of the clearest shifts in the market.
Major Supply Growth Over the Past Year
Florida’s housing market has seen steady inventory growth over the past few years. This has created opportunities for home buyers willing to take the plunge.
In fact, Florida has a lot more homes for sale than most other U.S. states.
The following graphic shows “months of supply” for the state of Florida and for the nation as a whole, using data from Redfin. Notice the gap that opened up over the past few years, with Florida surpassing the national average in terms of housing market supply.
In 2026, the Florida housing market has a much slower absorption rate than during the boom years. This means buyers have more options now, while sellers face more competition from other listings.
But the inventory surge might be cooling. Florida Realtors said new listings for last month declined by 9.5% from a year earlier (and down 15.2% for condo-townhouse units).
So, while total inventory is up significantly due to homes sitting on the market longer, the flow of new listings has actually started to taper off compared to last year.
Buyer’s Market vs. Seller’s Market
In 2026, most housing markets across the state of Florida are either neutral/balanced or slightly favoring buyers. The seller’s market conditions we saw during the pandemic are long gone.
The single-family side appears closer to balance, while the condo and townhouse side looks much more favorable to buyers with abundant supply.
Here’s a snapshot of the supply situation in spring 2026:
- Single-family homes: 4.8-month supply
- Condos and townhomes: 9.3-month supply
We can see signs of a buyer-friendly market in other metrics as well. Homes are taking longer to sell, and home prices have declined over the past year.
That does not mean sellers have no advantages. Well-priced homes in strong local markets can still move. But statewide, the market has cooled and mostly favors buyers.
Sales Activity and Buyer Demand
Home buyer demand has not disappeared entirely. In fact, home sales activity across the state of Florida actually rose at the end of 2025 and into early 2026.
So the demand is still there, just not as strong as in previous years.
That matters because it shows buyers are still active. They’re just navigating a different market than they were during the last boom.
Buyers appear willing to move when the numbers make sense, but they’re no longer chasing the market with the same urgency or FOMO mentality as before.
Mortgage Rates and Affordability
Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest variables in Florida’s housing market outlook.
In February of 2026, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped below 6% for the first time in several years. But rates have ticked up a bit since then.
Housing forecasters still expect some improvement over the full year.
- Realtor.com’s 2026 forecast says mortgage rates should average 6.3% in 2026.
- Fannie Mae’s March 2026 housing forecast projected a 5.8% average 30-year fixed rate for 2026.
This matters for Florida because the market is already more price-sensitive than it was in previous years. Buyers are more cautious, and rightfully so.
- If rates move lower and stay there, we could see increased demand from buyers with upward pressure on home prices.
- If rates stay elevated or rise again, buyers may remain cautious and the state’s softer pricing trend could continue.
But overall, mortgage rates will have a smaller impact on the Florida housing market in 2026, compared to bigger issues like affordability and consumer sentiment.
Bottom Line: Outlook for the Rest of 2026
Florida’s residential housing market is still active. But it’s no longer fueled by inventory shortages, strong demand, and rapid price growth.
In 2026, the real estate market has more inventory, softer prices, and less demand from buyers – trends that will likely continue through the rest of this year and into 2027.
The likely path for the rest of 2026 is a market with little to no price growth, more local variation between cities and metros, and continued sensitivity to rates and affordability.
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