In this report: A review of recent trends within the Dallas-area housing market, with a forecast extending into 2025, explained by the Home Buying Institute.
Home prices across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area have been mostly flat over the past year, and at least one forecast suggests that might continue going into 2025 as well.
Housing market supply levels have increased considerably since the start of this year. That’s one of the biggest changes that could benefit home buyers in 2025.
But overall, the DFW real estate scene is puttering along in “neutral” mode as we head into the last three months of 2024. It’s not too hot, not too cold, and probably won’t change much next year.
Here’s the latest forecast for the Dallas housing market extending into 2025, with commentary from HBI’s analysts.
Dallas Home Price Trends and Forecast for 2025
We begin with recent home-price trends and predictions for the DFW housing market, a major topic of interest for home buyers. And the news here is mostly flat (literally).
Multiple sources show that house values in the Dallas metro area have either held steady or declined slightly over the past year. According to Zillow, the median home value within the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area experienced a slight increase over the past year.
In October 2024, the company’s website stated: “The average Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington home value is $372,632, up 0.2% over the past year and goes to pending in around 25 days.”
That might seem like a marginal increase that’s hardly worth mentioning. But it stands out because most U.S. cities have experienced a higher level of price growth during that same timeframe. The nationwide median home value, for example, rose by around 3% during the past year.
The above graph shows the median home value for the Dallas-area housing market based on Zillow’s data, with a forecast stretching into 2025. The explanatory notes were created by our own analysts. Recent predictions for the DFW area suggest that prices will essentially remain flat over the coming months.
An October housing market update from Realtor.com actually showed a decline in prices for the Dallas area. According to that report, the median listing price for the DFW metroplex declined by -2.3% over the past year or so.
Message to home buyers: If you’re in it for the long haul, these short-term (and mild) price declines or plateaus are nothing to worry about. The Dallas housing market has strong fundamentals and will likely return to a pattern of slow-but-steady price growth over the coming years.
A Less Stressful Real Estate Market for Buyers
As mentioned, home prices within the Dallas-area real estate market have changed little over the past year and are expected to remain flat over the coming months.
This is good news for DFW home buyers, because it removes some of the urgency buyers experienced over the past few years. Buyers won’t feel the same kind of pressure as those who purchased a home two years ago, when prices were skyrocketing.
Recent reports and forecasts also show that the Dallas real estate market is moving at a slower pace these days, compared to the home-buying frenzy of previous years.
Overall, home buyers who enter the market during the remainder of this year or the first half of 2025 could have a more relaxed house-hunting experience.
Do your research: The DFW metro area contains dozens of cities and communities, and housing market dynamics can vary from one to the next. We report on the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex as a whole. But home buyers should research their local markets before making any decisions.
More Sellers Are Slashing Their Prices
Here’s another market trend that should please local home buyers.
Data provided by Redfin and other sources showed that roughly 40% of homes listed for sale in the DFW area last month had a price reduction. The percentage of price cuts has increased since the start of 2024.
This trend tells us two things:
- Sellers have become more flexible when pricing their homes.
- Buyers have more negotiating leverage these days.
In a real estate context, a price reduction occurs when a homeowner comes onto the market at one price and later reduces the asking price. These cuts are typically caused by a lack of offers from buyers, a common occurrence in a sluggish real estate market.
Over the past few months, the Dallas-area housing market had one of the highest price reduction rates among the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. And the overall percentage of cuts has increased over the past year.
Forecasts for 2025 suggest that the DFW housing market could offer the most “buyer-friendly” conditions we’ve seen since before the pandemic. And the trends mentioned above give credence to such predictions.
More Properties to Choose From
Dallas-area home buyers could also have more properties to choose from in 2025, due to inventory gains that occurred over the past year or so.
According to a September 2024 housing market report from Realtor.com, the total number of active real estate listings in the DFW area rose by a whopping 50% over the previous 12 months.
At the start of this year, the DFW area had about a 3.4-month supply of homes for sale. That was up from the all-time record low of 1-month supply recorded at the start of 2022. So clearly the supply situation has improved over the past two years.
These trends reinforce some of the predictions stated earlier, regarding a more buyer-friendly real estate market in Dallas.
Overall Prediction for the DFW Housing Market
Overall, the 2025 forecast for the Dallas-Fort Worth housing scene remains favorable for home buyers:
- Mortgage rates have declined since the start of this year and could drop further.
- More homes have come onto the market, giving buyers more options.
- Prices have leveled off and could remain flat for the foreseeable future.
- Buyers have more negotiating leverage, as shown by recent sales trends.
These and other trends suggest that 2025 could be a good time to buy a home in the Dallas area, with more homes to choose from and more bargaining power.
Frequently Asked Questions From Buyers
For nearly 20 years, HBI has received housing market-related questions from home buyers nationwide. This gives us unique insight into the concerns of the average buyer.
Along those lines, here are some straight answers to frequently asked questions among DFW home buyers, investors, and agents:
What will the Dallas housing market be like in 2025?
In general, buyers can expect a “Goldilocks” kind of real estate market in 2025. Not too hot, not too cold.
House values in the Dallas area have flatlined, and that will probably continue for a while. The market is moving more slowly these days, with a median “days on market” above 50. Sellers are more inclined to negotiate and, if necessary, lower their asking prices.
Most importantly, home buyers in the Dallas area will have more time for price research and other forms of due diligence in 2025. They won’t feel as pressured to rush or to submit a hasty offer. All good things.
Will DFW home prices drop next year?
If they do, they won’t drop by much.
Forecasts suggest that home prices across the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market will change very little over the next 12 months. So they might flatline, dip slightly, or rise slightly. But we’re talking about small, barely measurable changes in the grand scheme of things.
Long term, DFW home values will eventually start to rise again. This real estate market is currently “recalibrating” from the unprecedented price growth that occurred during the pandemic years. After that correction, the market will likely return to a pattern of gradual price growth.
If you look at Dallas-area home prices going back decades, you’ll see they tend to rise steadily over time.
Fun fact: DFW house values actually held steady during the Great Recession of 2008, when they were plummeting in most parts of the country. That says a lot about this market.
Dallas is a resilient housing market with strong fundamentals. We might not see much price growth in 2025 (which is a good thing). But we probably won’t see any major declines either. Overall, the DFW real estate market could be considered a good investment for buyers.
Will 2025 be a good year to buy a house?
The short answer is yes. For many home buyers in the DFW area, 2025 could be an excellent time to buy a house — and for several reasons.
If you refer back to the home price graph above, and you’ll notice that the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market is currently “bottoming out” after a pandemic-fueled price bubble.
This gives local home buyers an opportunity to make a purchase at the bottom of a real estate cycle, with the possibility of equity growth for the foreseeable future.
Additionally, mortgage rates have declined over the past few months. And they might decline further as we move into 2025, according to some forecasters.
Lastly, we have the inventory gains mentioned earlier. Next year, Dallas-area home buyers should have more properties to choose from and therefore a greater chance for success.
Ultimately, individuals must decide for themselves when it’s the right time to buy a house. And there are many factors that go into that. But from a market perspective, 2025 could be a good time to buy.
About the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW)
The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, colloquially known as “DFW,” is a sprawling metropolitan area located in North Texas. It is the fourth-largest metropolitan area in the United States and the economic and cultural center of the region.
Major Cities
The Metroplex encompasses two major urban centers and numerous suburbs and smaller cities. Here’s a breakdown:
- Dallas: The most well-known city in the Metroplex, Dallas is a hub of commerce, finance, and culture, home to numerous Fortune 500 company headquarters.
- Fort Worth: Often described as “Where the West Begins,” Fort Worth maintains a distinct cowboy and Western heritage while having its own dynamic business and cultural scene.
- Other Major Cities: Plano, Irving, Arlington, Garland, McKinney, Frisco, and Denton are among the other notable cities within DFW.
Population
As of the most recent U.S. Census, the DFW Metroplex has a population of over 7.6 million residents. It continues to be one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the nation, adding hundreds of thousands of new residents each year. This brings more home buyers into the Dallas-Fort Worth housing market, boosting competition and putting upward pressure on prices.
Geography
DFW encompasses 13 counties in North Texas, covering a vast expanse of over 9,200 square miles. The landscape is primarily flat prairie with areas of gently rolling hills. Trinity River is the major waterway flowing through the Metroplex.
Economy
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy is highly diversified, providing a broad range of employment opportunities across numerous industries. Key sectors in 2024 include:
- Corporate headquarters: Major Fortune 500 companies headquartered in DFW include AT&T, ExxonMobil, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, and more.
- Finance and banking: The region boasts a strong presence in financial services.
- Technology: DFW is sometimes called the “Silicon Prairie” due to its expanding tech sector.
- Healthcare: Numerous major hospitals and medical centers are headquartered in DFW.
- Logistics and Distribution: The Metroplex’s central location and strong transportation infrastructure make it a key hub for logistics and distribution.
Things to Know When Relocating
- Cost of Living: DFW generally has a lower cost of living than many major coastal cities, especially when it comes to housing market costs.
- Culture and Attractions: The region offers a wealth of cultural and entertainment options, including world-class museums, performing arts venues, professional sports teams (Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers, Dallas Mavericks, etc.), and popular nightlife and dining districts.
- Transportation: The region has a network of major highways, but can experience traffic congestion. DART (Dallas Area Rapid Transit) provides light rail and bus services. DFW International Airport and Dallas Love Field are major air transportation hubs.
- Climate: The Metroplex is classified as humid subtropical, meaning hot summers and generally mild winters with occasional cold spells.
Additional Resources
- Visit Dallas: https://www.visitdallas.com
- Fort Worth Convention and Visitors Bureau: https://www.fortworth.com
Disclaimers: This report contains forecasts and predictions for the Dallas-area real estate market extending through 2024 and into 2025. Such projections represent an educated “best guess” based on current housing market conditions. No one can predict future real estate trends with complete accuracy. The Home Buying Institute (HBI) makes no claims about future trends.
Brandon Cornett
Brandon Cornett is a veteran real estate market analyst, reporter, and creator of the Home Buying Institute. He has been covering the U.S. real estate market for more than 15 years. About the author