Recent forecasts for the Florida housing market suggest that home prices might rebound in 2026, after declining steadily for well over a year.
On this page: Our latest predictions for the Florida real estate market, along with zoomed-in forecasts for the major metro areas.
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Florida Market Snapshot: Updated 10/20/25
Here are five key takeaways from our latest market forecast:
- Florida home prices are dropping: The state’s median home value has fallen by around 5% over the past year due to a market correction.
- Median price point: The current median home value in Florida is approximately $378,000, down from around $398,000 a year ago.
- Supply and demand: The recent price drops were caused by an increase in supply (more homes on the market) and a decrease in buyer demand.
- Forecast for 2026: Prices are expected to continue falling a while longer, possibly hitting “bottom” and leveling off in late 2026.
- Local markets vary: Price trends are highly localized, meaning that conditions can differ significantly from one Florida city to another.
Home Prices Still Dropping in Fall 2025
According to Zillow, the median home value in Florida has dropped by around 5% over the past year.
When you zoom in on specific metro areas, the declines are even steeper. In Cape Coral, for example, prices are down more than 7% year over year.
So what’s behind the decline? Two main factors are driving it: increased supply and reduced demand. (The usual drivers.)
This graph shows the median home price for the state of Florida, going back nearly a decade.
Several things will jump out at you:
- Notice how steep the line got from 2020 to 2022 (middle of chart). That was the pandemic effect, and it’s partly why prices are currently declining.
- Over on the right, you can see the steady decline that is still going on today, as of fall 2025. We expect that shallow downturn to continue a while longer.
Forecast: When Will Prices Bottom Out?
If you’re wondering when this downturn might end, the best estimate is sometime in mid-2026.
Over the past year, home prices in Florida declined at a relatively fast pace. But the rate of depreciation has slowed in more recent months.
Looking forward, some Florida housing markets are getting positive price predictions for the first time in a long while.
Here are Zillow’s 12-month home price forecasts for the major metros:
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale: +2.3%
- Tampa-St. Petersburg: +1.0%
- Orlando-Kissimmee: +1.2%
- Jacksonville: +1.0%
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers: -0.3%
- Lakeland-Winter Haven: +1.2%
Aside from Cape Coral, most of Florida’s real estate markets have positive forecasts stretching into 2026. This marks a turning point from the past 18 months of falling prices.
By mid-2026, we might see the market flatten out, with prices stabilizing rather than falling further.
Beyond that, housing values could begin rising gradually again, assuming market conditions improve. However, this rebound is likely to be slow and uneven.
Other Housing Market Predictions for 2026
We reviewed dozens of reports to provide a roundup of Florida real estate market predictions for 2026, with data from Fannie Mae, Zillow, Florida Realtors, Redfin, and more.
Here are some key projections for next year:
- Statewide price growth will be modest or roughly flat. Expect low single-digit appreciation (or flat prices in many metros) rather than big gains. Forecasts predict ~2% or less growth in 2026. Skyrocketing home prices are a thing of the past.
- Mortgage rates should ease further through 2026, which will slowly boost demand. Forecasters project 30-year rates falling into the high 5% range by late 2026, luring more buyers to enter the market if that path holds.
- Sales volume will likely pick up if rates drift lower, but won’t fully rebound to boom-era levels. Experts expect existing-home sales to recover gradually as affordability improves, not an immediate surge.
- Inventory will remain elevated in many Florida markets, keeping the balance a bit friendlier to buyers. Supply levels have risen toward the 6-month mark in some cities, and even higher in others. This has shifted bargaining power toward buyers.
- Homes will take longer to sell and price cuts will be more common than in previous years. The average time on market for Florida’s major metros is well above the national average. Meanwhile, sellers are increasingly adjusting their prices to attract buyers.
- Expect wide regional variation: Florida is not a single, uniform real estate market, but a panoply of micro-markets that all have different dynamics. Some areas, like parts of Tampa and Orlando, could stabilize faster while others continue to soften.
- Luxury and ultra-luxury segments (especially Miami and other South Florida cities) should continue to outperform the middle market. High-end buyers, including many cash buyers, continue to boost luxury prices while the broader market cools.
- Condo and high-rise markets will feel more pressure than many single-family home markets, especially where insurance and financing options are limited. Condo resale activity and prices have been softer in some coastal/high-rise pockets.
- New home construction could pick up in 2026. But it won’t erase the current supply surplus or fix affordability issues immediately.
- Insurance uncertainties remain, especially for coastal properties. Florida holds a large share of NFIP policies, and lapses or program uncertainty can delay closings, increase costs, and make buyers wary in exposed areas.
What Could Change the Outlook
“Status quo” is a good way to describe all of this.
Barring some unforeseen circumstance, the Florida housing market will continue to idle along through the end of this year and into 2026.
A sharp drop in mortgage rates could bring more buyers into the market and increase demand. And that would put upward pressure on prices again.
However, most forecasts suggest rates will decline only modestly over the next year. So a strong rebound in home prices is unlikely before late 2026.
In short: the Florida housing market appears to be in the midst of a multi-year correction, with slower growth and more buyer-friendly conditions ahead.
Final Thoughts: A Slow Road to Recovery
If we had to summarize the Florida housing outlook in one sentence:
Home prices will probably keep falling through early 2026, then level off and begin a slow recovery later in the year as demand rises.
No one can predict the future with absolute certainty, but all signs point to a market that’s still correcting after several years of record-breaking gains.
Forecasts for Major Metros
We monitor real estate market trends for all of Florida’s major metropolitan areas and provide long-range predictions for each one of them.
Current housing conditions in the seven largest metros:
1. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (South Florida)
The market has shifted. Inventory is higher, homes are taking longer to sell, and de-listings are increasing. All of this gives buyers more negotiating power.
While luxury and ultra-high-end properties remain in demand, entry-level homes and condos are experiencing price declines. Buyers should focus on checking condition, maintenance/HOA fees, and insurance costs in older buildings.
2. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (Tampa Bay Area)
The market has cooled. Home values in the Tampa metro area are down several percent year-over-year, and supply is rising, giving buyers more room to negotiate.
The median listing price has flattened and time on market has increased. This indicates a shift away from the frenzied seller’s market of recent years.
Buyers should benefit from less competition, but still keep an eye on local factors like insurance, property tax changes, and job-market stability.
3. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
Inventory is rising significantly, and sales growth has stalled. This market is currently more balanced than some Florida metros, when it comes to negotiating leverage. Home prices declined over the past year but are predicted to start rising gradually during the second half of 2026.
Home buyers have more choices and more time to decide. But demand could increase over the coming months, so timing matters.
4. Jacksonville
The market in northeastern Florida has also cooled. Indicators show that prices are down modestly and buyer competition has relaxed compared to peak years.
While Jacksonville remains relatively more affordable than some other Florida metros, buyers still face higher housing costs overall. Check local sub-markets for the best opportunity.
5. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton
Home sales are slowing, inventory is higher, and median prices in Sarasota County have dropped by around 9% year-over-year, with buyer leverage increasing. The market is moving from a rapid-growth phase into a more moderated, balanced environment.
6. Cape Coral-Fort Myers
This southwest Florida metro is among the softest markets in the U.S. heading into 2026. Home prices have declined by 10% over the past year (as of Q4 2025), and homes are spending a long time on the market. For buyers, the environment offers opportunity but also risk.
7. Lakeland-Winter Haven
In this inland Central Florida metro, market growth has slowed and prices have declined modestly over the past 12 months. Inventory levels have risen, giving buyers more choices and less fear of bidding wars. Buyers should focus on sub-market conditions like commute times, schools, new construction, etc.
What Makes the Florida Housing Market Unique
Florida has one of the most complex real estate markets in the country.
For one thing, it’s massive. Over the past year alone, there were more than 400,000 home sales across the state of Florida.
It’s also very diverse. From the booming coastal cities to the quiet inland towns, housing market conditions can vary dramatically from one area to the next.
Adding to the challenge is the ongoing hurricane threat and the resulting home insurance crisis. The risk of severe weather has driven insurance premiums to some of the highest levels in the country, making the real estate market more daunting for buyers.
Add in the broad range of local economies and housing demands from city to city, and you have a housing market that’s far more complicated than most others in the U.S.
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