After months of home price declines, we’re finally seeing some good news about the Orlando, Florida housing market in 2026.
We have a positive price forecast for the first time in a long while. And while it’s just a forecast, it shows that economists believe the Orlando housing market could rebound in 2026.
Here are five things you should know right up front:
- Local home prices have declined over the past year but could soon stabilize, with forecasts predicting a modest rebound in 2026.
- Zillow predicts a +1.2% price gain for the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area from Sept. 2025 to Sept. 2026—the first positive forecast for some time.
- The local market remains more balanced and competitive than many other Florida metros, due to lower housing supply and faster home sales.
- Population growth is driving demand, with the Orlando area gaining many new residents and ranking among the fastest-growing U.S. regions.
- Experts believe Orlando may be near the bottom of its current market cycle, creating opportunities for home buyers before prices climb again.
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Update on Home Price Trends in 2025
Let’s start by talking about what home prices have been doing over the past few years—and where they might be headed over the coming months.
The following chart shows the median home price for the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area of Florida, based on data provided by Zillow.
Two things will jump out at you when viewing this chart:
1. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic
First, you can see the pandemic home-price acceleration, where the trend line almost went vertical for the first time in history.
Orlando metro area home prices were skyrocketing during late 2020 and into early 2022. They peaked in early 2024 at an all-time high of $407,000.
2. Declining prices over the past year
Over the past year or so, Orlando-area home prices have declined steadily, with the median price down to $387,000 in October 2025.
The market has corrected from the unsustainable growth of the pandemic and is now dropping back down to more realistic price levels.
Orlando housing market forecasts predict that this downturn in prices will continue for a bit longer, at least into the first quarter of 2026.
Market Forecast for 2026: A Turning Point Ahead?
So that’s where we are right now, in late 2025. We have declining prices heading into 2026, which is making a lot of home buyers wary of entering the market.
But there might be a critical turning point ahead.
Below, we have the home price forecasts provided by Zillow for Florida’s major metropolitan areas. These forecasts cover the 12-month period from Sept. 2025 to Sept. 2026.
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale: +2.3%
- Tampa-St. Petersburg: +1.0%
- Orlando-Kissimmee: +1.2%
- Jacksonville: +1.0%
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers: -0.3%
- Lakeland-Winter Haven: +1.2%
And look at this … for the first time in a long while, they’ve offered a positive home price forecast for the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area.
Granted, 1.2% is not a huge gain—but that’s okay. That’s what we want. We want slow and steady price growth.
We don’t want skyrocketing home prices because that leads to market corrections, instability, volatility, and affordability issues.
These predictions represent a turning point from the past year where prices have been trending downward. Experts believe that prices will start to edge upward a bit over the next year.
The bottom line is we might be near the bottom of the current market cycle, and that creates opportunities for home buyers.
Orlando’s Housing Market Is More Resilient
The rest of Florida is basically the same. Most metro areas are getting positive price forecasts for next year—except for Cape Coral, which continues to struggle with excess supply and weak demand.
What makes Orlando a little bit different from a lot of Florida cities and metro areas is that there’s currently less housing market supply.
The Miami area, the Tampa area, Cape Coral, other parts of Florida have a lot more supply than Orlando does. (And here we’re talking about the number of homes currently listed for sale.)
By having less supply, the Orlando real estate market is a bit more competitive than other metros. In fact, it’s currently a balanced or neutral market, whereas most other cities across the state are considered buyer’s markets in late 2025.
Orlando also has a lower number of days on market compared to other Florida metros. That means homes are selling more quickly due to a higher level of demand.
Population Growth a Key Factor
Population growth helps to sustain this housing market, preventing major price declines.
The Orlando metro area has experienced significant population growth over the past few years—and especially during the pandemic when a lot of remote workers flooded into this area.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area gained nearly 76,000 new residents from July 2023 to July 2024 alone.
Last year, this metro was the fastest-growing large region in the United States, becoming the 20th most populous region in the country along the way.
Population growth and other factors make the local housing market more competitive by current Florida standards.
Frequently Asked Questions From Buyers and Sellers
Here are some of the most frequently asked questions people have about current real estate conditions in Orlando and the general outlook for 2026.
1) Are Orlando home prices rising or falling right now?
Prices fell over the past year, but the decline has been slowing. Looking forward, forecasts suggest modest positive growth for the next 12 months—a sign the market may be shifting from decline to stability.
2) Is Orlando already at the bottom of the market?
We can’t say for sure. You never really know when you’ve hit a price floor until you start climbing again. So it’s a hindsight sort of thing.
But several indicators suggest the market may be near a trough.
Recent price declines have moderated, and some long-range forecasts point to modest gains over the next year. This implies a potential turning point rather than another steep drop.
3) What should sellers expect for pricing and time on market?
Sellers should price competitively and expect longer days on market compared with the pandemic peak. Orlando’s median “days on market” metric has risen over the past two years, meaning it takes longer to sell. So realistic pricing and good marketing are key to avoiding long listings and price reductions.
4) Are there still good opportunities for investors in Orlando?
Yes, population growth and strong rental demand support long-term investor returns in many Orlando submarkets. Look for areas with rent growth, low vacancy, and reasonable cap rates.
Avoid overpaying in overheated neighborhoods where future upside is limited. Population and rent trends are central to buy-and-hold strategies.
5) Will Orlando be a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2026?
The Orlando real estate market is currently considered a balanced or neutral market, making it more competitive than most other major metros in the state.
Many other parts of Florida (like Miami and Tampa) have experience significant inventory growth, which favors buyers. In contrast, Orlando has a relatively tighter inventory.
If mortgage rate declines bring more buyers into the market in 2026, conditions could begin to favor sellers a bit more than in the past.
Bottom line: Orlando will likely remain somewhat balanced for the foreseeable future, meaning it won’t strongly favor buyers or sellers.
6) Is a crash likely in 2026?
Current evidence does not point to a major crash in the foreseeable future. In contrast, the latest forecasts suggest modest gains over the next year.
Local fundamentals such as population growth and housing supply reduce the likelihood of a sharp collapse. But national economic shocks, big shifts in mortgage rates, or local oversupply could change that risk.
Related: Will the market crash in 2026?
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All of this underscores the fact that real estate market conditions change constantly—and we never really know where they’re going unless we pay close attention.
So, if you’re an Orlando home buyer, seller, investor, or agent, you need to get regular updates from an unbiased and objective source.
And that’s exactly what Florida Housing Weekly delivers.
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