In this report: A long-range forecast for the Orange County, California real estate scene in 2026, followed by some FAQs about market trends.
The OC housing market will enter 2026 in a more balanced state compared to previous years. It won’t be a strong seller’s or buyer’s market—but somewhere in between.
Just know that real estate market conditions can vary widely across the county, with different supply and demand dynamics in major cities like Anaheim, Irvine, and Santa Ana.
OC Housing Market Predictions for 2026
Here are five OC real estate market predictions for 2026:
- Home prices have been mostly flat over the past year. We expect this to continue in the first part of 2026, with modest growth possible later in the year.
- Tight inventory conditions will continue to challenge OC home buyers in 2026, with less than a 3-month supply being the norm for a while.
- Buyer demand will remain strong next year, especially if mortgage rates ease a bit further. Currently, about 27% of homes sell for more than the list price.
- The market will move slower than in previous years. The typical OC home currently takes about 54 days to sell, compared to 40 days last year.
- Affordability challenges persist with prices 172% above the national average and only 18% of households able to afford a median-priced home in 2026.
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1. Home values could rise modestly in 2026.
At the end of 2025, the median home price in Orange County, California was just over $1.1 million, essentially unchanged from a year earlier.
According to a November 2025 statement from Zillow: “The average Orange County, CA home value is $1,149,877, up 0.1% over the past year.”
This is a major shift from the steady home price growth of previous years.
Orange County real estate market forecasts suggest this pattern of modest appreciation will likely continue into the first half of 2026, with gains possible later in the year.
Statewide projections from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) predict that home prices will rise by 3.6% in 2026. We expect Orange County to experience smaller gains next year, partly due to ongoing affordability challenges.
While no one can predict future price trends with complete accuracy, a forecast of 1% to 2.5% price growth in Orange County during 2026 is reasonable.
2. Low inventory will continue to challenge buyers.
Orange County currently has approximately 2.6 months of housing supply, below the national average of 3.5 months and the California statewide average of 3.2 months.
According to a November 2025 C.A.R. report, Orange County housing market inventory has held steady over the past year, neither rising nor falling by a significant amount.
Our prediction is that tight inventory conditions will continue to challenge homebuyers in 2026 just as they’ve done over the past year.
The limited supply stems largely from homeowners who secured historically low mortgage rates between 2020 and 2021 and remain reluctant to sell and take on higher financing costs. This “lock-in effect” continues to suppress the number of homes available for sale, maintaining upward pressure on prices even as demand moderates.
3. Buyer demand will remain steady in 2026.
Approximately 27% of Orange County homes sold above their list price during October 2025, demonstrating that buyer demand remains steady despite the broader market cooling.
This shows that well-priced, desirable properties continue to generate interest and attract offers from buyers, sometimes resulting in multiple offers.
The sustained demand reflects Orange County’s fundamental appeal: strong job markets, desirable climate, quality schools, and limited developable land. These structural factors support continued buyer interest even as affordability challenges persist.
4. Mortgage rates expected to ease a bit in 2026.
Mortgage rates have remained below 6.64% for 16 consecutive weeks, down significantly from the peak of 7.74% reached in late 2023. This has improved affordability for OC home buyers.
Looking ahead, industry forecasts project the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will decline to approximately 6.0% in 2026, down from 6.6% in 2025. While these rates remain elevated compared to the sub-3% environment of 2020-2021, they represent a meaningful improvement that could unlock additional buyer demand.
The mortgage rate trajectory is among the most significant factors in Orange County housing market forecasts for 2026. Lower rates directly improve purchasing power. A buyer who could afford a $1 million home at 7% rates could afford approximately $1.1 million at 6% rates with the same monthly payment.
This expected rate decline could lead to increased home sales activity in the second half of 2026, particularly among first-time buyers and those who have been waiting on the sidelines for improved affordability conditions.
5. Affordability challenges remain despite market cooling.
Orange County’s housing affordability crisis continues to influence the market by creating additional barriers for home buyers.
The current price-to-income ratio for OC stands at approximately 12:1. This means the current median home price in the county is roughly 12 times the median household income.
At the start of 2026, Orange County’s median sale price will be about 172% higher than the national average, while the overall cost of living is 60% higher than the national average. This creates a significant financial barrier for prospective home buyers in the region.
For 2026, California’s housing affordability index is projected to improve slightly to 18%, meaning 18% of households will be able to afford a median-priced home. While this represents an improvement from 16% in 2024, it still indicates that homeownership remains out of reach for the majority of Orange County households.
Disclaimer: Housing market forecasts like these represent an educated guess rather than a guarantee. No one can predict future real estate trends with complete accuracy.
The Major Housing Markets in Orange County
Here are some forecasts for the largest “micromarkets” in OC: Anaheim, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Irvine, and Santa Ana.
These cities account for a significant share of the region’s home sales, making them a good indicator of broader market trends.
Anaheim, CA
The average Anaheim, CA home value is currently around $918,562, down by 0.5% from a year earlier.
With a population of nearly 350,000 people and a homeownership rate of more than 40%, Anaheim is one of the county’s largest housing markets.
As we head into 2026, Anaheim has one of the lowest levels of housing supply among the major OC cities. Combined with high prices, this is arguably the biggest challenge for buyers.
Forecast for 2026: After remaining flat for the past year, Anaheim home prices could begin rising gradually during the second half of 2026—or possibly sooner. But whatever price gains occur will likely be modest. Turnover remains low and new construction is limited, so inventory should stay tight through 2026.
Fullerton, CA
The average Fullerton, CA home value is currently around $1,010,973, down by 0.4% from a year earlier.
Fullerton tends to attract home buyers who are looking for character and community, rather than the resort feel of Anaheim or the corporate vibe of Irvine.
Like most of Orange County, the Fullerton real estate market currently suffers from very low inventory levels. Because of this, 35% – 40% of homes sold during the past year end up selling for more than the list price.
Forecast for 2026: The Fullerton housing market will likely follow the trajectory of Orange County as a whole, with home prices flat during the first part of 2026 with modest growth possible further into the year. Fullerton home buyers should be prepared for competition.
Garden Grove, CA
The average Garden Grove, CA home value is currently around $969,873, up by 0.2% from a year earlier.
By some measurements, Garden Grove is one of the most competitive housing markets in all of Orange County. Homes are selling faster than the countywide average, with many properties selling within two weeks of the original list date.
Garden Grove attracts buyers looking for relative affordability and proximity to the major job centers in Anaheim and Irvine.
Forecast for 2026: Garden Grove is one of the few OC cities where home prices rose a bit over the past year. We expect this to continue into 2026 as well, with prices rising modestly throughout the year. Inventory will likely stay low but could increase if declining mortgage rates motivate homeowners to sell.
Huntington Beach, CA
The average home price in Huntington Beach, CA is currently around $1,300,427, up by 1.8% over the previous 12 months.
Huntington Beach is the fourth largest city in Orange County and home to nearly 200,000 people. It’s also expensive with the coastal luxury lifestyle commanding a premium.
The housing market in Huntington Beach is very different from the more inland markets, with strong demand and a high number of vacation rentals.
2026 Price Forecast: Expect slow but steady home price growth, with the coastal premium remaining intact. Resale homes will continue to dominate the market. New construction will remain limited. Inventory should stay chronically low.
Irvine, CA
The average Irvine, CA home value is currently $1,524,631, up by 1.3% over the past year.
Irvine is the third most populous city in the county but often ranks #1 in real estate transaction volume and buyer interest due to its master-planned concept and quality schools.
Irvine often behaves independently of the rest of the county because it has so much new construction and foreign investment. This partly explains why Irvine home prices rose by 1.3% during 2025, while the average price for the county as a whole declined.
Irvine remains one of the most expensive cities in Orange County with a median price north of $1.5 million. Buyer demand is driven by strong schools, job centers, the university, and newer housing stock.
Forecast for 2026: Home prices are predicted to rise more than the county average, due to high demand and limited buildable space. In 2026, buyers should be prepared for strong competition with multiple-offer scenarios possible for hot properties in desirable neighborhoods.
Santa Ana, CA
The average home price in Santa Ana, CA is currently around $839,265, down by 1.1% over the past year.
Santa Ana is the second most populous city in OC and also the county seat. By Orange County standards, it’s the affordable entry-level market with a lower average home price.
The Narrative: This is your “Affordability/Entry-Level” market. For many first-time buyers priced out of Anaheim or Irvine, Santa Ana is the next logical step. It often dictates the “floor” of the OC market.
A lot of first-time buyers end up purchasing in Santa Ana, as a way to get more house for their money. People who have been priced out of cities like Anaheim and Irvine often shift to Santa Ana. This keeps demand high, even at times when the broader market cools.
Forecast for 2026: After declining for much of 2025, home prices in Santa Ana will likely find a “bottom” during the first quarter of 2026 with modest gains through the rest of the year. This market has been moving at a slower pace, but things could pick up next year if rates decline.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Market
Frequently asked questions about the Orange County housing market in 2026:
1. Will OC home prices go up or down in 2026?
Home prices are expected to rise modestly in 2026, with forecasts suggesting growth between 1% and 2.5%. This is a significant shift from previous years when Orange County saw rapid appreciation.
As of late 2025, median home prices hover around $1.14 million. And while prices have remained relatively flat over the past year, modest increases are likely through the latter half of 2026.
2. What are the most affordable cities in Orange County?
Some of the more affordable housing markets in Orange County include Laguna Woods, Santa Ana, Stanton, La Habra, Garden Grove, Anaheim, Buena Park, and Seal Beach. These cities tend to fall below the county’s typical home value, which is now well above $1 million.
The lower home prices in these markets reflect factors such as older housing stock, a higher share of condos and townhomes, and fewer coastal and luxury premiums.
While “affordable” is relative in a high-cost area like Orange County, these communities offer some of the lowest entry points for buyers who want to stay within the county.
3. How long does it take to sell a home these days?
The typical home in Orange County currently takes about 54 days to sell, compared to 40 days last year. This slower pace indicates a more balanced market compared to previous years when homes sold almost immediately. But the timeline can vary based on pricing strategy, location, and property condition.
4. Will OC be a buyer’s market or seller’s market in 2026?
In 2026, the OC housing market will likely favor sellers while challenging buyers. It’s not a strong seller’s market, like during the pandemic. But tight inventory conditions could give homeowners added leverage—especially if falling interest rates bring more buyers into the market.
5. What’s the housing market affordability situation?
Home affordability remains a major challenge in Orange County, as in most of coastal California. Only 18% of OC households will be able to afford a median-priced home in 2026. This means homeownership will remain out of reach for most residents. Lower mortgage rates could help, but not by much.
6. Are there programs to help first-time buyers in OC?
Yes, several assistance programs exist. The County’s Mortgage Assistance Program offers deferred payment loans up to $80,000 for eligible first-time buyers earning no more than 80% of the area median income.
Santa Ana offers loans up to $120,000 with a 0% interest rate through its My First Home Program, while Garden Grove provides down payment assistance up to $110,000 for low-income households.
7. Why aren’t more homes coming on the market?
Many homeowners in Orange County secured historically low mortgage rates between 2020 and 2021 and remain reluctant to sell and take on higher financing costs. This “lock-in effect” continues to suppress the number of available homes, increasing competition among buyers.
8. Will the Orange County housing market crash in 2026?
A 2008-style crash is highly unlikely. During the 2007-2008 crisis, Orange County had approximately 18,000 homes on the market compared to around 4,485 today. Additionally, foreclosure rates remain at historic lows, and lending standards are stricter.
Barring some unforeseen event, this housing market is more likely to experience minor price changes in 2026, rather than dramatic declines or a crash.