On this page: An overview of U.S. home price trends and predictions for 2024, compiled from a variety of source and explained by the Home Buying Institute.
Home prices in the U.S. rose sharply from 2020 to 2022, dipped slightly into the first part of 2023, and began rising again over the past few months.
Now, as we move further into 2024, home prices in many U.S. cities are rising at a gradual pace that reflects long-term historical norms. But that doesn’t mean the real estate market has returned to “normal.” We are still experiencing an unprecedented housing market inventory shortage across much of the U.S.
Most home price predictions for 2024 suggest that house values will rise at a moderate pace over the coming months. We created the forecast shown above by averaging home price predictions offered by groups like Zillow, Freddie Mac and others. So it reflects the general consensus at this time.
Home Price Trends as of February 2024
As of early February, the median home value in the United States was approaching $343,000, according to analyst from Zillow. That was about 2.6% higher than a year earlier.
Other sources report bigger gains over the past year, because they use different metrics and methods. But most of them indicate year-over-year home price growth within the 2.5% and 4% range, during the past 12 months.
Of course, real estate conditions can vary widely from one city to the next. Some real estate markets are still experiencing a drop in home prices in early 2024, while others are rising faster than average. It varies. So you’ll want to conduct some local research before buying a house.
The chart below, provided by Zillow, shows the median home value for the U.S. over the past few years. Several trends will jump out at you:
- Home prices rose steeply during the pandemic as the housing market surged.
- They peaked at an all-time high in the fall of 2022 and then dipped slightly.
- Prices stared to rise again in late 2023 and into 2024, but at a slower pace.
That brings us up to the present. Now, let’s look ahead at the (possible) future, with some home price predictions and forecasts for 2024.
Forecast and Predictions for 2024
Tight housing market inventory and growing demand from buyers are putting upward pressure on home prices in the U.S. Because of this, some forecasts for 2024 predict that house values will rise steadily in 2024, at least in most cities.
A January 2024 forecast from Freddie Mac stated the following:
“The FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index indicated that as of October of 2023, home prices rose 6.1% year to date, and as more home buyers enter the market amidst the lack of inventory, the pressure on prices could increase further.”
But not everyone agrees on this point. At least one forecaster sees home prices dropping slightly in 2024. That forecast, published by Realtor.com back in November, predicted “home prices to ease slightly and drop by 1.7%” this year.
Our own home price prediction falls somewhere in between. Given the current housing situation — with lower mortgage rates luring buyers back into the market — it’s hard to imagine home prices dropping in 2024. But large gains are also unlikely.
We expect to see modest growth in the 2% – 3% range.
10 Metros With the Highest List Prices
The table below shows the 10 U.S. metro areas with the highest median list prices. Unsurprisingly, the most expensive real estate markets (by this metric) are all located in California.
|Median List Price
|San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
|San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.
|San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.
|New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.
At the other end of the spectrum, the metro areas with the lowest median list prices were Memphis, Oklahoma City, and Indianapolis, coming in at $310,000 to $320,000. These are some of the most affordable housing markets in America, when measured at the metropolitan level.
Articles and Resources for Home Buyers
In addition to compiling home price forecasts, trends and predictions, HBI maintains a large library of articles for home buyers. It’s a great place to continue your research, especially if you’re a first-time buyer with no previous experience.
Here are some quick tips for conducting price research when buying a home:
- Research your market: Use websites like Realtor.com, Trulia and Zillow to figure out what homes are selling for in the area where you want to buy. This will help you determine an appropriate offer amount, when the time comes.
- Beware the asking price: It’s a starting point, not gospel. Compare the seller’s asking price to recent home sales in the area (similar size, condition, location) to determine if it’s realistic or not. Check out this article on comparable sales to learn how.
- Location, location, location: House values can differ dramatically between cities, neighborhoods, and even individual streets. So you might be able to get more house for the money just by expanding your search area.
- Seasonal swings: Consider buying a home in the “off-season,” when competition cools and home prices tend to dip. Sellers are often more flexible in such times.
- Don’t overpay: Emotions can cloud your judgment. Stick to your budget and avoid overheated bidding wars that push you beyond your comfort level. Know when to walk away.
- Future-proof your investment: Consider the future resale value of the house you’re buying. Will the property’s features and location appeal to buyers in the future, in the event that you sell?
Disclaimer: This page contains home price predictions through 2024 and into 2025. They represent the equivalent of an informed guess and should be treated as such. No one can predict future home price or real estate trends with complete accuracy. This information should not be construed as financial advice.