The Jacksonville, Florida real estate market has cooled over the past couple of years and those conditions could persist into 2026 as well.
Here are five predictions for the Jacksonville housing market:
- Home prices could hit bottom in the second half of 2026 and start rising again, but at a very gradual pace compared to past years.
- Home buyers will have more homes to choose from due to steady inventory growth, increasing their chance for success in 2026.
- Lower mortgage rates could motivate hesitant buyers who were previously on the sidelines due to a lack of affordability.
- Stable prices, lower rates, and inventory growth could shift the mindset among buyers, making them more confident about buying.
- For all of the above reasons, the Jacksonville housing market could shift from being a buyer’s market to a balanced one in 2026.
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Home Prices Still Falling in Fall 2025
The first thing you should know is that home prices in the Jacksonville metro area are still falling, as of fall 2025.
The following graph shows the median home value for this housing market, over the past eight years or so. It’s based on data provided by Zillow.
The three major events marked in this graph:
- Jacksonville home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022, rising at an unsustainable pace that wouldn’t last long.
- Home prices peaked at an all-time record high at the end of 2022.
- Prices have trended downward in 2025, and that trend could continue into 2026 as well.
Forecasts suggest that Jacksonville home prices will rise going forward. This creates an opportunity for buyers, who could come in at the bottom of the market.
Jacksonville, Florida Housing Market FAQs
Here are some of the most frequently asked questions heading into 2026:
What’s the housing market forecast for 2026?
For the first part of 2026, we expect the Jacksonville real estate market to continue favoring buyers over sellers. But competition among buyers could increase throughout the year due to lower mortgage rates and other factors. House prices will likely continue to drop a bit more before rebounding during the second half of 2026.
Takeaway: The market will remain cool for a while but warm up a bit next year.
Will home prices rise or fall in 2026?
Probably a bit of both. This market will see falling prices during the first quarter of 2026 (a continuation of current trends). But long-range forecasts suggest a bottom might be in sight. For example, Zillow recently predicted that prices would rise by 1% over the next 12 months. While that’s just a forecast, it does suggest that Jacksonville’s downturn might soon come to an end.
Takeaway: Home prices likely have further to fall before bottoming out.
Is Jacksonville a buyer’s or seller’s market right now?
As of fall 2025, the market leans toward buyers in many neighborhoods. Higher inventory levels and a longer time on market have reduced seller leverage. That said, well-priced homes in popular Jacksonville neighborhoods still sell quickly and can attract multiple offers. So conditions can vary block-by-block.
Takeaway: Overall it’s buyer-friendly, but location and pricing still matter.
How fast are homes selling in the Jacksonville area?
Homes are taking longer to sell than during the hottest months of 2020 – 2022. The median number of days on market has risen above 70. The Jacksonville real estate market currently moves at a slower pace than much of the U.S. But well-priced properties in desirable neighborhoods still move fast.
Takeaway: It’s slower than boom times, but pricing and location matter.
Will 2026 be a good year to buy a home in the Jacksonville area?
If you’re financially prepared and plan to stay put for at least a few years, 2026 could be a very good time to buy a home in Jacksonville. Home prices are expected to stabilize in 2026 with the possibility of gradual appreciation after that. There are also more properties for sale and lower mortgage rates than the past couple of years. These trends could make 2026 a good time to buy a home in Jacksonville.
Takeaway: If you’re financially prepared to buy, 2026 could be your year.
When is the best time of year to buy or sell a home in Jacksonville?
Spring remains the busiest selling season in terms of home sales activity. This can lead to higher prices and faster sales, both of which favor sellers. Fall and winter tend to see less competition and more negotiating power for buyers. Local micro-seasonality can vary by neighborhood, so localized research is crucial.
Takeaway: Spring typically favor sellers; buyers benefit in fall and winter.
What are the most affordable suburbs around Jacksonville?
Affordable suburbs include inland parts of Duval County and certain neighboring communities where median prices fall below the metro average. Affordability varies greatly across the Jacksonville metro area, with a stark difference between coastal and inland homes. Use recent county or MLS reports for the latest affordability assessments in your area.
Takeaway: Inland Duval neighborhoods and nearby suburbs cost less.
How is the market in Riverside, San Marco, and the Beaches area?
These neighborhoods can be more price-sensitive. Riverside and San Marco offer urban, historic housing that can command premiums for walkability and charm. The Beaches and Ponte Vedra are pricier due to the coastal lifestyle. Even in a cooling market, desirable homes in these neighborhoods sell faster than the more generic suburban properties.
Takeaway: Expect higher demand in these lifestyle-oriented neighborhoods.
Are people moving to Jacksonville from other states?
Yes. Jacksonville continues to attract residents relocating from higher-cost states (especially the Northeast, Midwest, and even other parts of Florida). They’re drawn by jobs, lower housing costs relative to some metros, and quality-of-life factors. Population growth fuels the housing market by increasing demand for homes, on both the rental and purchase side.
Takeaway: Population growth will put upward pressure on prices in 2026.
Lightning Round: 10 Things Buyers Should Know
Do you plan to buy a home in the Jacksonville area sometime during 2026? Here are 10 things you should know before entering the market:
- Inventory is higher than normal. Buyers have more options now, reducing competition and pressure to bid above asking price.
- Prices may hit bottom soon. Analysts expect Jacksonville home values to level off or start rising again in late 2026.
- Mortgage rates are expected to ease. Many forecasts point to lower rates in 2026, improving affordability for buyers.
- Sellers are more flexible. With longer listing times, many sellers are open to negotiating on price or offering closing cost credits.
- Local conditions vary. Some neighborhoods—like Riverside or the Beaches—remain competitive, while inland areas offer better deals.
- Fall and winter favor buyers. Fewer competing buyers during the cooler months can translate into better purchase terms.
- Pre-approval strengthens your position. Sellers take offers more seriously when you’re already cleared by a lender.
- Budget for insurance. Property insurance costs in Florida have climbed, so factor this into your total housing budget.
- New construction adds choices. Builders have increased incentives, including rate buydowns and upgrades, to move new homes.
- Think long-term. Jacksonville’s population growth and economic expansion suggest steady appreciation for those planning to stay put.
Disclaimer: This report contains real estate market predictions and other forward-looking statements that are based on current trends. No one can predict such trends with complete accuracy. The publisher makes no claims or guarantees about future housing market conditions.