Texas housing market forecasts for 2026 suggest that prices could remain flat for a while due to weak demand. But falling mortgage rates might change that.
- 5 Texas housing market predictions for 2026
- 5 common questions from buyers and sellers
- 5 reasons to sign up for Texas Housing Weekly
In a nutshell: Home prices have been dropping over the past year and probably have further to fall. But the sluggish market could warm up a bit next year, especially if mortgage rates decline.
Top 5 Texas Housing Market Predictions for 2026
Here are five data-supported predictions for the Texas real estate market:
Prediction #1: Home prices will remain mostly flat in 2026.
Home prices are currently falling across most Texas cities. So it’s fairly safe to predict that they could fall further in the first part of 2026.
This table shows the median home price for Texas’s major metros in November 2025. It also shows how prices have changed over the past year, along with Zillow’s 12-month forecast extending through November 2026.
| Metro | Median Price | Past Year | 1-Year Forecast |
| Austin | $428,390 | -5.8% | -1.8% |
| Dallas | $363,356 | -3.9% | +0.2% |
| Houston | $306,425 | -2.1% | +0.4% |
| San Antonio | $278,854 | -3.1% | -0.8% |
As you can see, home prices in most Texas cities are predicted to remain mostly flat in 2026, while the Austin area could see additional declines.
Five key points from the above table:
- As of fall 2025, home prices were still falling in most Texas cities.
- Prices have dropped the most in the Austin-Round Rock metro area.
- Zillow expects this downturn to ease in 2026, with growth possible.
- Among the major metros, Austin’s decline could stretch on the longest.
- These are predictions, not certainties. A lot of variables play into this.
The takeaway: Home prices are currently declining, but it won’t last. When demand comes back to the market, depreciation will cease and prices will turn north again.
Prediction #2: Inventory growth will benefit buyers in 2026.
New data from the Multiple Listing Service and other sources show that housing market supply in Texas has increased over the past year.
As of last month, the state of Texas averaged about 5 months of supply. That’s a huge improvement from the pandemic low of 1.4 months of supply.
Definition: Months of supply refers to how long it would take to sell all the homes currently for sale in a market, at the current pace of sales.
The fact that this metric has risen over the past year shows that there are more homes on the market today compared to last year, along with a slower market pace.
Among the major metropolitan areas in Texas, the Austin-Round Rock area currently has the most housing market supply at about 6 months.
The San Antonio metro area also has a lot of supply by Texas standards, but not as much as Austin.
Almost all cities in Texas have more housing supply than the national average. This makes them more “buyer-friendly” as well.
The takeaway: Inventory growth that occurred over the past couple of years will make it easier for home buyers to find a suitable property in 2026.
Prediction #3: The housing market will be sluggish for a while.
The Texas real estate market is currently moving at a fairly slow pace.
In fall 2025, homes listed for sale across the Lone Star State spent a median of 65 days on the market. That was 20 days longer than the national median time on market.
Among the major metro areas, Austin-Round Rock is the slowest housing market in Texas, while DFW and Houston are moving a bit faster.
All of these markets could warm up a bit over the coming months, especially if mortgage rates continue to decline. But even then, a slower market pace will benefit buyers in 2026.
The takeaway: The Texas housing market will likely remain slow-moving in early 2026, but things could pick up a bit later in the year.
Prediction #4: Offers above list price will continue to be rare.
Home buyers in Texas are less likely to pay more than the list price, a trend that will likely continue into (at least) the first half of 2026.
In fall of 2025, only about 11% of Texas homes sold above the original listing price. During the same timeframe, 27% of homes nationally sold above list.
This shows that the Texas real estate market is a cooler than many other parts of the U.S., when it comes to offer amounts and sale prices.
Hindsight: During the pandemic-era housing boom of 2020 – 2022, nearly half of all home sales in Texas went for more than the asking price. So the market has cooled considerably since then.
The takeaway: In 2026, few home buyers in Texas will be willing to pay more than the list price. Bidding wars have become rare, so there’s less need for this strategy.
Prediction #5: Austin-area price declines will continue in 2026.
The Austin-area real estate market continues to decline in value, with home prices falling steadily for more than three years.
Of all the major metro areas in Texas, Austin-Round Rock has experienced the most extremes when it comes to:
- Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic years
- Falling home prices in the following years
The second trend will likely continue into 2026. Recent predictions suggest that the Austin-area housing market has farther to fall before hitting bottom.
After peaking at a median value of $559,000 in the summer of 2022, prices in the Austin-Round Rock metro area have steadily declined, dropping to an average of $428,000 in late 2025.
This extended slump could end up setting a record for the longest sustained price decline in the region’s history—and it’s not done yet.
The takeaway: Buyers beware, Central Texas housing market forecasts suggest that prices could fall further in 2026 before finding a bottom.
5 Frequently Asked Questions
Here’s a roundup of the most common questions among buyers and sellers:
1. What’s the overall outlook for Texas home prices in 2026?
Some forecasts call for mostly flat prices in 2026 following the declines of 2024 – 2025. A slow rebound is possible if buyer demand strengthens and mortgage rates ease, but any gains are expected to be modest and uneven across metros.
2. Is 2026 going to be a buyer’s market in Texas?
Texas will likely be more of a balanced market in 2026, meaning it won’t strongly favor buyers or sellers. But conditions vary from one city to the next. Some markets, like pockets of Central Texas, could see buyer’s market conditions next year. In contrast, the seller’s market conditions we saw during the pandemic are unlikely to return anytime soon.
3. How much inventory is on the market right now?
Inventory climbed from pandemic lows to roughly five to six months’ supply in 2025 in many Texas markets, which is closer to a balanced market and far above the 1-2 months seen during the previous real estate boom.
4. Are bidding wars still common in Texas?
No, the share of Texas homes selling above list price has fallen into the 10% range. Multi-offer bidding wars will be much less common in 2026.
5. How long are homes taking to sell?
Homes in Texas have been taking longer to sell than during the pandemic. Statewide measures in 2025 showed median days on market notably higher than previous years, with some reports citing roughly 60–65 days as a statewide reference point.
Disclaimer: Real estate market conditions evolve constantly. As a result, no one can make future market projections with total accuracy. The predictions above represent an educated guess rather than a guarantee.
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