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The Tampa Bay housing market has been in decline for well over a year, with steadily falling home prices. Some forecasters believe this trend will continue in 2026.
Here are five key trends to know about heading into 2026:
- Tampa Bay home prices fell 6% in 2025 and are expected to continue declining into at least the first quarter of 2026.
- The market has shifted dramatically in favor of buyers, with rising inventory (up 14.8% year-over-year) and a 5.4-month supply of homes.
- Condos and townhomes have been hit harder than single-family homes, with prices dropping 12% compared to 1.5% for detached homes.
- Multiple factors are driving the decline, including skyrocketing insurance costs, hurricane worries, and homes taking longer to sell.
- Forecasts for 2026 vary widely, with Zillow predicting a modest 1.3% rebound while Realtor.com expects prices to fall another 3.6%.
Tampa Market Assessment Heading Into 2026
The Tampa-St. Petersburg real estate market has experienced steady supply growth over the past two years.
At the same time, home buyers have pulled back due to increased housing costs and insurance challenges. This supply-and-demand imbalance has slowed the market and lowered home prices.
These trends have also turned the Tampa Bay Area into one big buyer’s market. Buyers have more time to evaluate properties—and more of them to choose from.
Market forecasts for 2026 predict more of the same, with falling prices and buyer advantage continuing into (at least) the first quarter of the year.
Home Price Updates and Forecasts
Home prices in the Tampa Bay area have been in decline since the summer of 2024. And as of December 2025, they continue to fall with no bottom in sight.
The above chart shows the median home value for the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area over the past eight years or so, based on Zillow’s measurement.
In December, Zillow noted that “the average Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater home value is $354,666, down 6.0% over the past year.”
Florida Realtors (the state’s official Realtor association) shares similar data, but they break it up by property type.
According to a December 2025 market summary from Florida Realtors:
- The median sale price for single-family homes dropped 1.5% over the past year.
- The median sale price for condos and townhomes dropped by 12%.
Average those out, and it more or less matches Zillow’s assessment.
Why Condo and Townhome Prices Fell More
Even though prices declined in both categories, condos and townhomes saw much larger drops than single-family homes for a few key reasons.
First, there are simply more condos and townhomes for sale relative to demand. When supply builds up and homes take longer to sell, sellers are more likely to cut prices.
Second, buyer demand is weaker for attached homes right now. Condos and townhomes often come with rising HOA fees, insurance costs, and the risk of special assessments, which makes some buyers hesitant.
Financing can also be more complicated for condos, further shrinking the pool of qualified buyers. Single-family homes tend to face fewer of these hurdles, which has helped their prices hold up better by comparison.
Tampa Bay Still a Buyer’s Market in Early 2026
Due to the above-mentioned conditions, multiple sources have labeled the Tampa Bay Metro area as a buyer’s real estate market heading into 2026.
In spring 2025, for example, housing analysts from Redfin ranked Tampa as one of the top buyer’s markets in the United States. It was joined by several other Florida metros on that list, including Miami, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Jacksonville.
More recently, Zillow labeled the Tampa-St. Petersburg area as a buyer’s market with a “heat index” of 41 out of a possible 100.
Buyer-friendly real estate conditions are expected to continue into 2026 as well, with buyers having plenty of options and more time for due diligence.
A Perfect Storm of Factors
Several overlapping factors have made Tampa a buyer’s market:
- Rising Inventory: This market has experienced a surge in available homes, giving buyers more options and eliminating the competitive pressure of previous years.
- Skyrocketing Insurance Costs: Tampa-area residents have some of the highest home insurance premiums in the country. This makes homeownership less affordable overall and causes many potential buyers to hesitate.
- Recent Hurricanes: In 2024 alone, hurricanes caused several billion dollars in damages to the Tampa area, while shattering illusions about the area’s “hurricane immunity.” This makes buyers more cautious about buying in the area.
- Falling Prices: As mentioned, Tampa-area home values dropped by around 6% during 2025. This makes buyers wary of entering the market, reducing the demand for homes. It also means buyers are getting more house for their money than a year ago.
- Slower Sales: Properties now take an average of 63 days to sell compared to 47 days last year. This gives buyers more time to shop around and negotiate, without feeling rushed to make a quick decision.
- Affordability Issues: Even though Tampa Bay home prices declined over the past year, they’re still 40% to 50% higher than before the pandemic. When combined with higher insurance costs, Tampa is no longer the affordable coastal market it once was.
All of these factors have one thing in common. They increase supply and reduce demand, shifting the overall market dynamic in a way that benefits buyers.
Two Very Different Forecasts for 2026
So what’s the outlook for 2026? Depends on who you ask.
Zillow Offers Modest but Positive Forecast for 2026
According to a January 2026 statement from Zillow, the “average Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater home value is $354,666, down 6.0% over the past year.”
In contrast, their long-range forecast predicts the Tampa-area housing market could soon rebound, with prices turning north again.
Specifically, they predicted a 1.3% increase in the median home value from December 2025 to December 2026. This prediction suggests the housing market could soon reach a turning point.
Realtor.com Sees Prices Falling Further
Other housing analysts and economists believe that home prices in the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area further to fall in 2026.
For example, Realtor.com’s 2026 Housing Market Forecast predicted that Tampa Bay home prices would decline by around 3.6% during 2026.
Our View: The Market Correction Will Continue
Based on current supply and demand factors in this part of Florida, home values will likely keep falling into the first quarter of 2026 and possibly into mid-year.
Beyond that, Tampa home prices might remain flat for a while or inch upward modestly. But we don’t see any major price growth anywhere on the horizon.
This is actually a positive trend, a natural correction from an overheated period.
During the pandemic, the median home price for the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area rose by around $150,000 in just over two years. That’s an unsustainable level of price growth.
What we’re seeing now is the Tampa housing market coming back down to earth, with prices gradually declining to a new normal.
Going forward, prices will probably level out somewhere between (A) where they were in early 2020 and (B) where they peaked in the summer of 2022.
Inventory Growth Is Reshaping the Market
Housing inventory in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area has grown significantly over the past year, giving buyers more options than they’ve had in years.
According to Realtor.com’s December 2025 housing report, active listings in the Tampa Bay area increased by 14.8% year-over-year. This represents the total number of homes currently available for sale at any given time.
Perhaps more telling, data from Redfin shows the Tampa metro area now has about a 5.4-month supply of homes for sale. That’s well above the national average of 3.8 months and signals a clear shift toward a buyer’s market.
When housing supply increases like this, it typically puts downward pressure on home prices. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing throughout the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area and most of Florida as we head into 2026.
Here’s how inventory growth could benefit local home buyers in 2026:
- More homes to choose from, across a wider range of prices and neighborhoods
- Less competition from other buyers, including fewer bidding wars
- More time to evaluate properties without pressure to make rushed decisions
- Greater leverage when negotiating price, repairs, or closing costs
- Increased likelihood of seller concessions, such as rate buy-downs or credits
- Better chances of including contingencies, like inspections and appraisals
- Stronger alignment between asking prices and actual market value
Overall, higher inventory shifts power away from sellers and back toward buyers, creating a calmer and more practical environment for purchasing a home.
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Disclaimer: The above report contains real estate market predictions for 2026. Such views are the equivalent of an educated opinion and therefore not certain. No one can predict future housing market trends with complete accuracy.