El Paso Housing Forecast: One of the 5 Hottest Markets of 2025?

On this page: a summary of current real estate market conditions in the El Paso metro area, with predictions extending through the end of 2025.

In a hurry? Here are the five key points covered in this report:

1. Hot Housing Market: El Paso, Texas is predicted to be one of the hottest housing markets in 2025, according to a recent ranking by Realtor.com.
2. Strong Growth: The company forecasted a 19.3% increase in home sales and an 8.4% increase in home prices for El Paso, Texas in 2025.
3. Population Growth: This metro area’s growing population is a key factor driving the market, as it increases the demand for housing.
4. Increased Inventory: The number of homes listed for sale has increased over the past two years, giving buyers more options and more leverage.
5. Still Affordable: El Paso’s housing market will likely remain affordable in 2025, compared to the national average and other major Texas cities.

El Paso Named a ‘Top Housing Market’ for 2025

On December 10, researchers from Realtor.com published a forecast that ranked the top housing markets for 2025. El Paso, Texas appeared in the #4 position, after Colorado Springs, Miami, and Virginia Beach.

To determine these rankings, the company analyzed housing data for the nation’s 100 largest metro areas. They then created growth predictions for both home prices and sales. The metro areas with the higher combined growth forecast rose to the top of the list.

The top 10 markets for 2025 are exclusively in the South and West.

In rank order, the (predicted) hottest real estate markets are:

1. Colorado Springs, Colo.
2. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.
3. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
4. El Paso, Texas
5. Richmond, Va.
6. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.
7. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
8. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.
9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.
10. Greensboro-High Point, N.C.

The authors cited moderate home prices and a growing population among the factors that led to El Paso’s appearance on this list.

If this forecast proves accurate, these metro areas could see a significant increase in both home sales and prices during calendar year 2025.

A Closer Look: El Paso, Texas Housing Forecast

Realtor.com’s analysts offered a strong prediction for the El Paso metro area housing market, putting it at #4 in their list of top markets for 2025.

Here are their forecasts for existing home sales and price growth:

• Home sales: up by 19.3% year-over-year
• Home prices: up by 8.4% year-over-year

Other forecasters have predicted more moderate price growth for El Paso but still put it ahead of other metro areas in Texas.

Zillow, for example, recently predicted that the median home value for the El Paso metro area would rise by around 3.5% over the next year or so, more than most Texas cities.

The point is, analysts expect this real estate market to experience steady home-price appreciation during 2025, with a significant increase in sales activity as well.

Steady Population Growth Boosting the Market

The El Paso area has experienced steady population growth in recent years, and some projections suggest even faster growth going forward.

This trend increases the need for housing on both the rental and purchase side, bolstering demand and putting upward pressure on prices.

According to the official City of El Paso website, the surrounding county “grew by 48,842 over the last 5 years and is projected to grow by 71,943 over the next 5 years.”

Population growth is one of several factors economists and housing analysts use to predict future real estate market trends and price movement.

Supply Levels Have Increased Going Into 2025

Here’s some good news for El Paso home buyers.

Housing market inventory has increased over the past couple years, so buyers could have more properties to choose from in 2025.

The pandemic-driven home buying frenzy of 2020 to 2021 brought El Paso housing market inventory down to a record low. Back then, the metro area had about a 1.4-month supply of homes for sale, which was very low from a historical standpoint.

By the end of 2024, however, supply levels had risen to a 3.5-month supply. This is a positive development from a home buyer’s perspective, and we could see even more growth in 2025.

This is partly why El Paso real estate market forecasts predict higher sales volume over the coming months. With more properties on the market, home sales will likely increase in 2025 compared to the previous year.

Inventory growth also shifts the overall market balance, giving buyers more negotiating leverage. When sellers have to compete with a growing number of property listings, they tend to be more flexible when it comes to the sale price and other terms.

Bottom line: El Paso, Texas probably won’t be a true buyer’s market in 2025. But it will be a lot more “buyer-friendly” due to increased inventory and negotiating leverage.

El Paso Is Still an Affordable Housing Market

Affordability contributes to the strong forecasts being issued for the El Paso real estate market. Generally speaking, the more affordable housing markets across the U.S. tend to experience more demand from buyers, since there are more people who can afford to buy.

El Paso, Texas has a housing market that’s considered affordable compared to the national average, with a cost of living 15.8% lower than the U.S. average.

Let’s plug in some numbers to illustrate this point. Here’s how the median home price in this market compared to the rest of Texas and the U.S., as of December 2024.

• El Paso, TX: $223,587
• Austin-Round Rock: $444,248
• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington: $368,683
• Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land: $306,191
• Texas: $299,467
• United States: $357,469

Even if prices rise a bit in 2025, as the latest predictions suggest, the El Paso housing market will remain relatively affordable when compared to other major metros across the county.

Government-Backed Loans Popular Among Locals

Government-backed mortgage loans continue to play an important role in the El Paso housing market, with the vast majority of local home buyers relying on them.

A recent report showed that FHA and VA loans accounted for nearly three in four mortgage loans generated in the El Paso metro area last year. The VA loan program accounted for roughly 30% of total loan volume, while the FHA loan program picked up another 41%.

• FHA loans allow for a down payment of 3.5% and are usually easier to obtain when compared to conventional (non-government-backed) mortgage products.
• VA loans, on the other hand, cater to military members, veterans, and certain surviving spouses. But they’re not available to the broader public.

El Paso is home to Fort Bliss, the second largest base in the U.S. Army. This metro area also has a high percentage of veterans residing in it. This explains why VA loans are so popular among local home buyers.

Disclaimer: Housing market predictions and forecasts contained within this article were provided by third parties not associated with the publisher. The Home Buying Institute makes no claims about future economic or real estate trends.

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Overview of the El Paso Metro Area

We’ve provided the following information for people who are thinking about moving to the El Paso area in the near future. In addition to understanding the local real estate market, future residents can benefit from knowing a little about the region itself.

The El Paso metropolitan area is located in far west Texas and consists of two counties: El Paso and Hudspeth. It’s part of the larger El Paso-Las Cruces, TX-NM Combined Statistical Area (CSA), which also includes Doña Ana County in Southern New Mexico.

The region’s geography is characterized by desert terrain, including the Chihuahuan Desert, the Franklin Mountains, and the Mesilla Valley. This unique desert environment contributes to the area’s distinct climate and landscape.

Here are the latest population figures (rounded), as of 2024:

• City of El Paso: 679,000
• El Paso county: 870,000
• El Paso-Las Cruces CSA: 1,098,000

El Paso itself is the sixth-largest city in Texas and the 22nd-largest in the United States.

Economy and Major Employers

The El Paso economy is diverse. Key sectors including international trade and logistics (due to its border location), military and government employees (due to Fort Bliss), healthcare, manufacturing, and tourism.

The graphic below, provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows the share of non-farming payroll jobs in the El Paso metropolitan area broken down by sector.

Payroll jobs in the El Paso metro area. Military and farming not included.

Major employers in the area include:

• Fort Bliss (military and government employees)
• T&T Staff Management, Inc.
• City of El Paso
• The Hospitals of Providence
• The University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP)
• El Paso Community College
• County of El Paso
• University Medical Center
• DATAMARK, Inc.
• Alorica, Inc.

Overall Cost of Living

Compared to many other major metropolitan areas in the United States, El Paso generally offers a lower cost of living, particularly when it comes to housing. However, wages may also be lower on average compared to national averages.

According to Payscale.com:

“El Paso, Texas’s cost of living is 12% lower than the national average. The cost of living in any area can vary based on factors such as your career, its average salary and the real estate market of that area.”

In 2024, Realtor.com ranked El Paso among the top 10 U.S. cities with the lowest cost of living. They compared prices for everything from groceries to housing, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

And we covered home prices already. The median home value within the El Paso real estate market is significantly lower than the national median. Even if prices rise steadily in 2025, as forecasts suggest, this part of Texas will remain affordable on a national scale.