The general consensus among some housing analysts and researchers is that U.S. home prices will rise modestly during 2026, possibly by around 1%.
Expert estimates for annual price growth during 2026 range from 0.7% to 1.2%.
Realtor.com made a more bullish prediction that prices would rise 4% in 2026, but that’s the outlier. Most forecasters are only predicting modest growth this year.
A Roundup of Price Predictions for 2026
Most of the predictions we’ve reviewed suggest that home prices in the U.S. will continue to rise gradually through 2026 and into early 2027.
A summary of noteworthy price predictions for 2026:
- Redfin, 1% growth: “We expect the median U.S. home-sale price to rise 1% year over year in 2026. Prices will tick up only marginally because still-high mortgage rates and prices, along with a weaker economy, will curb demand.”
- Zillow, 1.2% growth: “U.S. home values are forecasted to grow 1.2% in 2026 after national values were roughly flat in 2025. Next year’s forecast reflects expectations of gradually improving affordability and steady buyer demand.”
- National Association of REALTORS® (NAR): “Home prices are forecast to increase by 4% next year, supported by steady demand and persistent supply shortages.”
(These predictions were issued in late 2025 and apply to calendar year 2026.)
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, also predicted a noticeable uptick in home sales during 2026, with prices remaining stable in most of the country.
According to Yun: “Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales. Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.”
A Snapshot of Current Home Values
As of spring 2026, the median home value in the U.S. was hovering between $360,000 and $400,000. (Different sources report different numbers.)
More importantly, the U.S. median price remained mostly flat over the past year—a big change from the rapid appreciation we saw in previous years.
The above graph shows the national average home price in the United States, based on data provided by Zillow in spring 2026.
In April 2026, Zillow wrote: “The average United States home value is $366,019, up 0.4% over the past year.” They only expect that average to rise by around 1% during 2026.
Bottom line: Prices have been mostly flat over the past year, with only minor gains in most U.S. cities. Forecasters predict more of the same going into early 2027.
Why Forecasters Are Predicting Modest Growth
Most housing analysts only expect to see small home-price gains during 2026 and into the first part of 2027.
But why? What’s preventing the steadier price growth we’ve seen in the past?
Some of the main reasons include:
- Higher mortgage rates. Despite some recent easing, mortgage rates remain well above the ultra-low levels seen during the pandemic years, limiting affordability.
- Home prices hit a ceiling. In many U.S. cities, prices rose so much over the past few years that many households have reached their affordability limit.
- Buyer demand has cooled. High prices, elevated financing costs, and economic uncertainty have caused some buyers to pull back or postpone purchases.
- More inventory available. More homes on the market gives buyers more choices and reduces some of the upward pressure on prices.
- Slower sales pace. In many markets, homes are sitting on the market longer than in previous years, giving buyers more room to negotiate.
- Price cuts are common. More sellers are having to reduce asking prices to attract buyers, especially in markets where supply has grown faster.
Bottom line: Analysts don’t expect a major drop in values in 2026. But they do see enough cooling factors in place to predict a slower, flatter price trajectory.
Not Every Housing Market Will Rise in 2026
National forecasts like those shared above can be misleading.
While most analysts expect home values to rise modestly in 2026, those gains will not be evenly distributed for all cities.
Some places where prices could continue to fall during 2026:
- Cotality reported that national home-price growth slowed to just 0.5% year over year in February 2026, while 13 states were already experiencing declines.
- The softer markets are concentrated in parts of the Sun Belt, especially where inventory has grown and sellers have lost leverage.
- Redfin reported in April 2026 that sellers in Texas and Florida were the most likely to cut prices. Among the 50 largest metro areas, San Antonio had the highest share of listings with price cuts, followed by Austin, Dallas,Tampa, and Fort Lauderdale.
- Central Texas is one of the clearest examples. Zillow’s March 2026 data showed home values down 5.9% year over year in Austin-Round Rock.
- Florida has also been notably weak, with statewide home values down 4.2% over the same period and Tampa down 3.5%.
The most likely outcome for some of these markets is not a severe crash, but a long stretch of weak performance.
The takeaway: Housing conditions remain highly localized in 2026. Buyers, sellers, and investors should focus on local market conditions when making decisions.