Mesa, Arizona Housing Market Report and Forecast for 2025 – 2026

The real estate market in Mesa, Arizona has undergone significant changes in the past few years. It has shifted from favoring sellers to buyers and is now idling in “neutral” territory.

Here are some of the most important trends affecting Mesa home buyers and sellers in late spring 2025, with a forecast stretching into 2026.

• The Mesa housing market has cooled significantly, with slower sales and more inventory compared to the recent past.
• Local home prices in Mesa declined by 1.8% over the past year. Nationwide, the median home price rose by 1.4% during that time.
• Properties are taking longer to sell, reflecting a slower-paced market with less urgency.
• Buyers have more negotiating leverage in 2025, with more homes for sale, fewer bidding wars, and more price reductions.
• Mesa is currently a balanced market that doesn’t strongly favor either buyers or sellers. But this dynamic could shift either way in 2026.

Mesa, AZ Housing Market Much Cooler in 2025

The first thing you should know is that the Mesa housing market has cooled down considerably over the past few years.

The same is true for the broader Phoenix metro area, and most other cities across the U.S.

Higher housing costs and steady inventory growth have led to a general slowdown within the real estate market, shifting the balance in a buyer-friendly direction.

Those who plan to buy a home in Mesa, Arizona during 2025 will find more favorable conditions. They’ll have more properties to choose from, more negotiating leverage, and a more relaxed pace—compared to those who purchased a few years ago.

The following sections provide evidence of this market cooldown.

1. Home prices have declined over the past year.

Home prices within the city of Mesa have declined over the past year, a trend that has affected most of the Phoenix metro area.

According to a May 2025 report from Zillow: “The average Mesa, AZ home value is $445,815, down 1.8% over the past year.”

This market deviates from the national trend of gradually rising home values. The nationwide median price rose by around 1.4% during the past 12 months, according to Zillow.

This means that the Mesa real estate market is currently experiencing relative price weakness, when compared to the United States as a whole.

In the forecast section below, we speculate about what prices might do going forward, based on the current supply and demand situation.

2. Properties are taking longer to sell these days.

According to data from national real estate brokerage Redfin, homes for sale in Mesa are currently spending a median of 49 days on the market.

While this is lower than the Phoenix metro-wide median of 55 days, it still indicates a fairly sluggish housing market rather than a fast-paced one.

Historical perspective: During the home-buying frenzy of 2020 to early 2022, the median time on market for Mesa dropped as low as 16 days. So things have slowed considerably since then.

This is generally good news for home buyers. The slower pace gives buyers more time for due diligence, without feeling pressured to make a quick decision.

3. Supply has increased (more homes for sale).

Home buyers will also be happy to know that housing market inventory (homes for sale) in Mesa, Arizona has increased over the past couple of years.

But overall, the market is still a bit tight in terms of supply.

In spring 2025, the “months of supply” metric for Mesa, Arizona was up to 3.5 months. During the pandemic, the market dropped down to a one-month supply. So conditions have improved since then, with more homes coming onto the market.

4. Mesa is a more buyer-friendly market in 2025.

Over the past few years, inventory growth and other factors have made the Mesa real estate market increasingly buyer-friendly.

In 2025, home buyers have more negotiating leverage than they’ve had for several years—even if they don’t realize it.

We can see this shift in a variety of metrics, but mainly these two:

• Last month, only 13.8% of properties sold above the list price, down from a high of 65% during the pandemic.
• Meanwhile, nearly 40% of local real estate listings had at least one price reduction last month, higher than previous years.

Those last two stats tell us a lot about the Mesa real estate market in 2025.

When the percentage of homes that sell above the listing price drops—and the percentage of listings with a price reduction increases—it means buyers are gaining leverage.

But sellers still hold some leverage as well. Mesa is not yet a classic buyer’s market. The ongoing inventory shortage, while improved, is keeping things fairly competitive for buyers.

5. The market doesn’t strongly favor buyers or sellers.

As mentioned, house hunters have an easier time these days. They’re finding more properties for sale, a slower market pace, and sellers who are increasingly willing to negotiate.

But it’s not a true buyer’s market.

Zillow calls the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metro a “neutral” market in 2025. This means it doesn’t strongly favor buyers or sellers, but is generally more balanced.

It’s hard to predict how this dynamic will shift going forward:

• If mortgage rates drop and fears of a recession subside, more home buyers could enter the market. This scenario could turn Mesa into more of a seller’s market.
• If interest rates hold steady (or rise), and/or people become more pessimistic about the economy, it could reduce housing demand and create a buyer’s market. 

For now, home buyers in Mesa can take comfort knowing that current real estate conditions are much more favorable than they were a few years ago.

Real Estate Outlook Stretching Into 2026

We just presented two forecast scenarios as to which way the Mesa housing market might shift through 2025 and into 2026.

We also touched on some of the variables that make market predictions more difficult in 2025. They include everything from trade wars to inflation to the possibility of another recession.

All of these things make it harder to see where the market is headed.

Some analysts expect Mesa to track the broader Phoenix metro area, which is expected to resume home-price growth due to a steadily growing population.

Job growth will play a role in all of this as well. Major data-center projects in Mesa (such as Meta’s $1 billion facility and Novva’s 300MW campus) are projected to bolster local employment and housing demand by 2026.

The Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro area is projected to require 83,500 new housing units by January 2026, with current construction only fulfilling part of that demand.

Here’s a reasonable prediction based on all of this:

• For the rest of 2025, rising supply and affordability constraints should keep the Mesa housing market somewhat balanced and “cool.”
• In 2026, continued population growth and a more robust job market could increase demand and move the needle toward a seller’s market.
• Home prices in Mesa will likely remain flat for a while longer. But they’ll eventually start inching upward, a turnaround that could come in the second half of 2025.
• In short: The Mesa real estate market will maintain the status quo for now. But it could shift toward buyers or sellers later this year, depending on the economy.

Disclaimer: Housing forecasts and predictions represent an educated guess and should be treated as such. The Home Buying Institute makes no claims about future economic conditions.

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