Orlando Housing Market Forecast for 2025: Modest Price Growth Ahead

Predictions for the Orlando, Florida real estate market in 2025 suggest we could see a flattening of home prices over the next year or so. This housing market currently favors buyers, due to strong inventory growth and seller price reductions.

We expect those market dynamics to continue for the foreseeable future.

Here are five predictions for the Orlando-area housing market into 2025:

• The median home price will rise by a small amount over the next year.
• The local real estate market will continue to favor buyers over sellers.
• Home buyers will have more properties to choose from in 2025.
• Buyers will also enjoy more negotiating leverage and bargaining power.
• Mortgage rates will decline through the end of this year and into 2025.

Note: This forecast paints the most likely scenario for the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area real estate market over the coming months. But it’s still the equivalent of an educated guess.

Orlando Housing Market Much Better for Buyers

In many ways, the Orlando metropolitan area has turned into one big buyer’s market as of summer 2024.

• Housing supply has increased over the past year.
• Price reductions by sellers have become more common.
• And the market is moving at a slower pace than previous years.

(The same could be said for most of Florida’s housing markets, in fact.)

Some headwinds remain. Home prices in Orlando are much higher today than they were five years ago. And this has priced some buyers out of the market entirely.

But for those who can still afford the typical home price in Orlando, a golden opportunity awaits. Buyers have a chance to come in at the “bottom” of the market, pricewise, with the possibility of equity growth for years to come.

Buyers also have more negotiating leverage these days, when it comes to the sale price, contract contingencies, and other aspects of the deal.

We expect these buyer-friendly conditions to continue into 2025 as well.

A Modest Home-Price Forecast for 2025

Last month, Zillow offered a modest price forecast for the Orlando real estate market that extended into the summer of 2025.

Specifically, they predicted the median home value for the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area would rise by only 0.8% over the next year or so.

At first glance, this kind of prediction might point to a “weak” housing market with very little upward pressure on prices. But in reality, Orlando is going through the same post-pandemic market correction as most other U.S. cities. It’s to be expected.

The following graph shows the median home value for the Greater Orlando housing market with data through August 2024. We’ve annotated it to highlight some key trends over the past few years.

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Some key points to take away from this graph:

• Orlando’s post-pandemic price correction was relatively shallow.
• The median home value is currently hovering around $400,000.
• Prices now appear to be flattening, in line with the forecast above.

Prediction takeaway: The Orlando housing market will likely experience little to no price growth through the rest of this year and into 2025, which could reduce urgency among buyers.

Significant Inventory Growth in Orlando

Here’s some good news for home buyers that will likely stretch into 2025. Inventory levels within the Greater Orlando real estate market have risen substantially over the past year or so.

This gives buyers a better chance of finding a suitable home within their budgets.

Consider the evidence: A recent report showed that Orlando had the third-largest increase in real estate listings over the past year, among the nation’s 50 largest metro areas.

According to the September 2024 report from Realtor.com: “Metros that saw the most inventory growth: Tampa (+90.1%), San Diego (+80.4%), and Orlando (+76.9%).”

The table below shows the top 10 metros for inventory growth, including several in Florida.

Ranking	Metro	Change in Active Listings
1	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	+90.1 %
2	San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA	+80.4 %
3	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	+76.9 %
4	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL	+72.2 %
5	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	+69.3 %
6	Jacksonville, FL	+68.3 %
7	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	+66.8 %
8	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	+62.4 %
9	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA	+58.0 %
10	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	+50.6 %

This inventory growth trend could continue into 2025 as well, especially if mortgage rates decline further over the coming weeks.

Some homeowners are still hesitant to sell their homes and buy another, due to concerns that they will take on a higher mortgage rate. But this so-called “lock-in effect” is not as strong as it used to be, because rates have declined over the past few months.

A further decline in rates could bring even more properties onto the market.

Prediction takeaway: In 2025, Orlando-area home buyers will have more properties to choose from than in previous years. This could give them more negotiating leverage and a greater chance for success.

A Slower Real Estate Market That Favors Buyers

A fast-paced real estate market can challenge home buyers in many ways. It forces them to make rushed decisions while skimping on due diligence. This in turn increases the chance for buyer’s remorse.

Like most U.S. cities, the Orlando housing market moved at a lightning-fast pace during the pandemic years. But it has since slowed down. A lot.

In the summer of 2024, homes listed for sale across the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area spent a median of 63 days on the market, before going under contract. That was 17 days longer than a year earlier, and 10 days longer than the national median for that same timeframe. 

Translation: The Orlando housing market has slowed considerably over the past couple of years, when measured by the overall speed of home sales.

This trend could benefit local home buyers in several ways. A slower market gives buyers more time for property evaluation, price research, and negotiations—among other benefits.

These conditions will likely carry over into 2025 as well, aside from the seasonal fluctuations we see every year. A drop in mortgage rates (which is predicted for later this year) could accelerate the market a bit, but probably not by much.

Prediction takeaway: For the rest of this year and into 2025, Orlando home buyers could benefit from a slower pace within the local housing market. This in turn could reduce some of the home buying urgency that we’ve seen in previous years.

Steady Population Growth Well Into the Future

Population growth also plays an important role in current housing market trends and near-future forecasts. Steady population growth brings more home buyers into the market, increasing demand and bolstering prices.

The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford area currently has a population of around 2.7 million people and continues to grow at a steady pace.

A recent report by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. predicted that the area’s population would grow by 75.3% over the next few decades (from 2,737,800 in 2022, up to 4,800,100 in 2060).

The report also projects that employment in Orlando will increase by 104.1% by 2060. These factors are likely to attract even more people to the area, further contributing to its population growth.

According to a March 2024 report from the U.S. Census Bureau, Orlando had the third-largest increase in population among U.S. metros, from 2022 to 2023.

To quote the Census Bureau report:

“Florida’s more populous metro areas ranked among the nation’s top 10 in numeric population gains. Three metro areas collectively added nearly 150,000 residents from 2022 to 2023: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (54,916); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (51,622); and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (43,387)…”

The bottom line here is that the Orlando area remains a popular destination for people relocating from elsewhere, which in turn supports local home values.

5 Things to Take Away From This Report

Here are five important points to take away from this market report.

1. Modest Growth: Analysts expect Orlando home prices to either remain flat or rise slightly between now and summer 2025.
2. Increased Inventory: Housing market supply has increased significantly over the past year, giving buyers more options.
3. Buyer’s Market: With more inventory and a slower pace, the Orlando real estate scene currently favors home buyers.
4. Mortgage Rates: Rates are expected to decline slightly over the coming months, which could spur the housing market.
5. Population Growth: Orlando’s steady population growth will continue to bring buyers into the market, fueling demand.

Disclaimer: This report includes forecasts, projections, and predictions for the Orlando real estate scene extending into 2025. Such forward-looking views are the equivalent of an educated guess and therefore not guaranteed. The publisher makes no claims about future housing or economic conditions.