Tampa Bay Area Housing Market Update and Forecast: 2024 – 2025

Have questions about the current state of the Tampa-area housing market, or predictions for 2024 – 2025? You’ll find both of those things below, plus a lot more!

In a housing market forecast published earlier this year, the Tampa Bay Area real estate market was ranked as one of the hottest for 2024. Looking forward, forecasters predict that home prices in the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area will continue climbing into 2025.

This report explains why the Tampa area is experiencing such hot housing market conditions in 2024, and answers some frequently asked questions from home buyers.

Tampa Housing Forecast: One of the ‘Hottest’ Markets

At the start of 2024, housing analysts from Zillow created a list of the 10 hottest housing markets of 2024. And Tampa was among them.

To create these rankings, the authors analyzed the 50 largest metro areas in the U.S. with a focus on housing-related factors. They considered the speed at which homes are selling, anticipated home price appreciation during 2024, and other real estate and economic factors.

The 2024 Zillow forecast ranked Tampa among the 10 hottest housing markets, giving it the #10 spot. (Buffalo, NY was ranked as the #1 hottest market, by the way.)

To quote their report:

“[Tampa’s] diverse economy and the 244 days of sunshine it clocks on average in a year should continue to be a powerful magnet for newcomers this year. Homes in this Gulf Coast city last about 24 days on the market before finding a buyer, and the typical home is worth $375,338 … the forecast calls for a 2% increase in home values in 2024.”

In a more recent forecast for the Tampa housing market, team Zillow predicted even bigger price gains for the next year or so. In March, the company forecasted a 6% home price increase for the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area from February 2024 to February 2025.

Such predictions are the equivalent of an informed guess. So we shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the exact numbers being projected here. The takeaway is that home prices within the Tampa Bay Area real estate market are expected to continue a gradual climb through 2004 and into 2025.

A Lot More Inventory Available in 2024

Here’s another prediction for the Tampa Bay Area real estate market in 2024.

Home buyers entering the market over the coming months should have more properties to choose from, thanks to steady inventory growth. In fact, a recent report showed that the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area experienced one of the largest year-over-year increases in housing market supply.

According to the March 2024 Realtor.com report:

“The inventory of homes actively for sale increased in 29 out of 50 of the largest metros compared to last year. Orlando (+38.5%), Miami (37.4%) and Tampa (36.3%) experienced the most inventory growth.”

It’s also worth noting that all three of the housing markets with the most inventory growth are located within the state of Florida. If this trend continues going forward, these Florida real estate markets could become a lot more buyer-friendly into the second half of 2024.

But getting back to the Tampa Bay area, this market had about a 4.1-month supply of homes for sale as of March 2024. That’s a big improvement from the record lows of the pandemic era, when there were hardly any homes available to purchase.

Tampa currently has a higher level of housing market supply than most major metros areas across the U.S. And that’s good news for home buyers who are planning to buy a home in the Tampa Bay Area later in 2024.

Frequently Asked Questions from Buyers

The Home Buying Institute (HBI) has been receiving questions from home buyers for more than 15 years. In that time, we’ve learned to identify the most frequently asked questions relating to real estate market conditions.

Here are some FAQs relating to the Tampa housing market forecast and trends:

What is the Tampa Bay housing market like in 2024?

Overall it’s still a fairly competitive real estate market, from a buyer’s perspective. But things have slowed down considerably since the overheated home-buying frenzy that occurred from late 2000 into early 2022.

Homes are staying on the market longer these days, before going under contract. The median “days on market” metric was up to about 40 days in February of 2024, compared to 7 – 10 days during the pandemic.

And, as mentioned above, Tampa-area home buyers have more properties to choose from, along with a better chance for success.

So in many ways, the Tampa Bay Area housing market has “normalized” from the extreme conditions of the previous few years. This is a positive trend from an economic standpoint. 

Is Tampa more of a buyer’s or seller’s market now?

It’s a much better year for home buyers, for sure.

But the market still slightly favors sellers due to an ongoing supply-and-demand imbalance. This dynamic could shift over the coming months, however, due to the inventory growth mentioned previously.

It’s also worth noting that a lot of major metros across the country are still experiencing strong seller’s market conditions. The Tampa Bay Area real estate market stands out in the sense that it has more supply than most major metros, and more favorable conditions for buyers as a result.

In short: The Tampa Bay Area is likely shifting from an extreme seller’s market to a more balanced market. This means buyers have somewhat more negotiating power and might see less frantic competition, but sellers still hold some advantages.

What’s the forecast for the Tampa Bay real estate market?

Predictions and forecasts for the Tampa housing market predict steady home price growth for the foreseeable future, combined with a better balance between supply and demand.

Buyers who plan to enter the market over the coming months should pay close attention to home value trends, in particular.

The Tampa Bay Area seems to have rebounded from a mild price correction (decline) that occurred during late 2022 into 2023. So at this stage, the most likely scenario is that home prices will trend upward for the foreseeable future.

In that scenario, Tampa-area home buyers who postpone their purchases until later in 2024 could have less purchasing power due to higher prices.

Will home prices in Tampa rise or drop during the rest of 2024?

No one can predict future home-price trends with complete accuracy. But the general consensus forecast for the Tampa real estate market suggests that prices will rise through 2024 and into 2025. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.

That chart above shows the median home value for this metro area. You can see where price growth (1) accelerated during the pandemic years, (2) peaked in the summer of 2022, and (3) experienced a short and shallow downturn into early 2023.

Now, as we approach the spring of 2024, home prices are rising within the Tampa housing market and forecasts suggest this will continue over the coming months.

Will the Tampa-area housing market crash in 2024 or 2025?

At present, it seems unlikely that the Tampa Bay Area housing market will “crash” (or even suffer a major downturn) anytime soon. The current supply-and-demand situation will likely yield modest home-price gains for the foreseeable future.

This metro area also has a strong economy with an unemployment rate that’s currently below the national average. That, combined with gradual population growth and relatively affordable home prices, will continue to support the local housing market.

Is now a good time to buy a home in the Tampa Bay Area?

On average, renting a home in the Tampa area is cheaper than buying one, during the first 10 years or so. But the difference is smaller than in many other metro areas. So from a monthly cost standpoint alone, renting offers a slight edge.

But homeownership has many benefits that go beyond the monthly cost. When you purchase a home, you’re investing in something that you actually own.

Aside from the Great Recession fifteen years ago, home values in the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area tend to rise steadily over time. So this real estate market could be viewed as a good investment opportunity for buyers.

So, for many buyers, 2024 could be a good time to buy a home in the Tampa area.

Tampa Metro Area Overview

The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) — more commonly known as the Tampa Bay area — is a major population center located on the Gulf Coast of Florida. It’s the 17th largest metropolitan area in the country, with over 3.1 million residents as of the latest census.

• Primary cities include: Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater
• Other large communities: Riverview, Brandon and Spring Hill
• Counties in this MSA: Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando

The Tampa area offers numerous white sand beaches along the Gulf of Mexico, with Clearwater Beach and St. Pete Beach frequently ranked among the best in the United States.

Disclaimer: This report contains forward-looking views (forecasts and predictions) relating to the Tampa, Florida housing market through 2024 and into 2025. Such views were provided by third parties not associated with the publisher. The Home Buying Institute makes no claims about future real estate or economic conditions.