Short answer: For buyers who are financially prepared and understand the homeowners insurance challenges in Florida, 2027 could be a good year to buy a home due to sellers outnumbering buyers in most cities.
Florida’s housing market has had some wild swings over the past few years, going from a hot seller’s market to one that increasingly favored buyers.
Now, many buyers and investors are looking ahead to 2027 and wondering the same thing: Will 2027 be a good year to buy a home in Florida?
We expect most housing markets across the state to remain buyer-friendly in 2027, with sellers outnumbering buyers and prices remaining mostly flat.
Buying in Florida in 2027: Five Things to Know
Here are five things to know if you’re planning to buy in 2027:
- Florida home prices are mostly flat, but not crashing.
- Mortgage rates have risen more than home prices.
- Most cities favor buyers due to supply surpluses.
- Florida property taxes will be cheaper in 2027.
- Buyers should consider “carrying costs,” not just price.
1. Florida home prices are mostly flat, but not crashing.
Home prices across Florida have been mostly flat over the past year, according to the four sources cited below.
Home price trends can vary significantly at the local level. But overall, the state experienced very little movement during 2026.
Here’s what the data showed as of November 2026:
- Redfin: Florida’s statewide median sale price remained flat over the previous year (from October 2025 – October 2026), with no change.
- Realtor.com: The statewide median sale price was flat over the previous year, while the median listing price declined slightly.
- Zillow: The average Florida home value declined by 0.9%, year over year.
- Florida Realtors®: The median sale price for existing homes rose 1.2%, while the median price for condos declined by 1.8%.
So, aside from that one metric for existing single-family homes (from Florida Realtors), all sources report home prices being flat or down slightly over the past year.
Today’s higher mortgage rates, higher fuel costs, inflation, and other factors have reduced buyer demand. So there’s less upward pressure on home prices.
Bottom line for buyers: Florida home prices will likely remain flat or rise slightly in 2027. They’re sitting on a floor right now, which reduces urgency.
2. Mortgage rates have risen more than home prices.
In early November, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was hovering around 7.24%. That’s up from 6.17% a year earlier.
On a $415,000 home purchase with 20% down, this increase in mortgage rates adds roughly $250 per month in principal and interest.
Looking forward, some economists predict that 30-year mortgage rates will remain above 7% for most of 2027, if not for the entire year.
That matters to Florida home buyers, because higher rates can increase monthly payments and reduce affordability even when prices remain flat.
Bottom line for buyers: It’s the monthly payment, not the sticker price, that increased the most during 2026. This could affect your budget in 2027.
3. Most cities favor buyers due to supply surpluses.
Most of Florida is currently classified as a buyer’s market, and by multiple sources.
It’s the usual imbalance: there are more sellers and listings than there are buyers. This results in a longer time on market, while giving buyers an edge in negotiations.
In many Florida cities, sellers currently outnumber buyers by more than two to one. That’s based on data reported by Redfin.
But this can vary at the local level, with some metros having a bigger imbalance than others.
- As we head into 2027, Miami will have the biggest “seller surplus,” especially within the condo segment of the housing market.
- West Palm Beach and Jacksonville, meanwhile, are a little more balanced (while still favoring buyers for the most part).
- Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Tampa are in the middle of that spectrum, with more sellers than buyers.
Here’s the percentage by which sellers outnumbered buyers in Florida’s major metros, in November 2026. This is from the Redfin Data Center.
- Fort Lauderdale: 117%
- Jacksonville: 80%
- Miami: 159%
- Orlando: 123%
- Tampa: 104%
- West Palm Beach: 68%
Bottom line for buyers: Lopsided market conditions will likely persist in 2027. But well-priced homes in hot neighborhoods can still sell quickly.
4. Florida property taxes will be cheaper in 2027.
Amendment 3 was approved by Florida voters on November 3. So if you’re buying a home in Florida in 2027, you could benefit from lower property taxes than previous years.
This constitutional amendment expands Florida’s non-school homestead exemption for primary residences from $50,000 to $150,000, effective on January 1, 2027.
That higher exemption lowers the taxable value of your primary residence, for both county and city taxes. This in turn can cut several hundred to over a thousand dollars off your annual property tax bill (depending on local tax rates).
But the rules are different for current and new residents:
- Existing Florida residents, and home buyers who establish permanent residency by December 31, 2026, receive the full expanded exemption immediately in 2027.
- Buyers moving to Florida after December 31, 2026, face a five-year “phase-in” window where they get a smaller initial exemption before unlocking the full amount.
Bottom line for buyers: For current residents, buying in 2027 could bring a lower tax burden, at a time when many buyers could really benefit.
5. Buyers should consider “carrying costs,” not just price.
In Florida’s unique housing market, the purchase price is only part of the equation.
High “carrying costs” (like homeowners insurance, flood insurance, HOA assessments, and property taxes) can also play a big role in overall affordability.
Homeowners insurance premiums in Florida remain among the highest in the nation, a dynamic that will likely continue in 2027.
On top of that, state law requires all Citizens Property Insurance policyholders with wind coverage to carry separate flood insurance starting in 2027, regardless of whether the home is in a high-risk flood zone.
In condo communities, buyers also have to account for mandatory structural reserve funding laws that have increased monthly HOA dues.
Florida home buyers are often surprised to learn that these additional recurring monthly expenses can rival or even surpass a home’s principal and interest payment.
A home that appears reasonably priced on paper can quickly become unaffordable once you add in annual insurance quotes, flood endorsements, and association assessments.
Bottom line for buyers: Before submitting an offer, get home insurance quotes and review HOA details to estimate the full monthly costs.
Want to Keep Tabs on the Market in 2027?
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Disclaimer: This report contains predictions about the Florida housing market in 2027. Those views amount to an educated guess and are therefore not guaranteed.
